The Scrypt Miner's Dilemma

21 juil. 2022

Such problem, much wow. Dogecoin is 'merge mined' with Litecoin. This means that as a favor to Dogecoin (and heck considering the stupidity of retail investors, a shockingly profitable one) Litecoin miners simultaneously contribute work to Doge blocks as they perform Litecoin's POW. This decision by Litecoin miners (and the ltc community I suppose) to help Doge prevent a certain death many years back was perhaps an easy one: not much to lose with a shot at some profits in the form of Doge (if it happened to survive).

Fast forward to the last couple of years: Doge has managed to (lbf temporarily) overtake Litecoin a midst the 2021 crypto bull run. Why was this again? Oh ya, b/c cool guy said the things about how great it is...oh, and he may not be so cool anymore b/c of (at least what would appear on the surface) a fairweather easily swayed weak hands perspective on hodling cryptocurrency. The logic must have went something like this: everything's going up, cool guy is richest guy in the world, cool guy like coin: I like coin! Shut up and take my money! Welp, I hope cool guy doesn't have even weaker hands with the meme coin than he does with Bitcoin. lol. Or Twitter. double lol.

In anticipation of the Litecoin Halving (litecoinblockhalf.com/) it would perhaps make economic sense for miners to slowly seek to sell a bit of coin over the coming year in anticipation of their block reward being cut in half to help smooth the transition. It's no secret that we here at LARP are wildly bullish on Litecoin over the coming year and beyond and are expecting a historic bull run which has likely already begun. In it of itself, it was only a matter of time before Litecoin would reclaim it's market dominance over Doge. In a sense, the 2021 Doge bubble was blessed by Litecoin miners and allowed to happen as it benefited them handsomely. It's some-what astonishing how high the market cap actually went, but when you combine retail frenzy with the ignorance of market-making industry wide 'index' based funds--magic can happen. But I digressss.

Considering all of the above, the question for the scrypt miner over the next year becomes: WHICH COIN TO SELL!? The legitmate one that is on the rise who's supply available for sale is about to be drastically reduced or the wildly overvalued meme coin with an infinite supply? Hmmm. Tough one. Perhaps a bit of a vicous feed-back loop could develop here around this narrative. Does any of this stuff even really matter? Probably not, but I'd say the logic is at least more sound than the 'fundamental' reasons for Dogecoin's epic rise. lol. Anyway, you know us, above all we only really care about TA, so lets talk charts.

LTCUSD/DOGEUSD Ratio:


[TA Text to be added in the following update to this chart]

23 juil. 2022

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24 juil. 2022

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Demonstrate your count.

24 juil. 2022

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On the bottom, red text box:
*wave a of which would begin here

24 juil. 2022

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Yet another example of the 2 equal adjacent segments of equal time rule using waves b (aqua blue) and c (purple) of the red contracting triangle (X) withing larger black/yellow Y...here the two segments of 50 bars predict a fairly powerful third move to follow (price wise) and certainly time-wise.

24 juil. 2022

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THE PROJECTION: Making nujuanced, educated deductions derived from the Historical Data

A quick overview of the long-term price activity (on both the DogeBTC ratio as well as the DOGEUSD pair) immediately brings to bear one important fact: the start of the trend, a corrective rally dating back to 2014 (in both cases), cannot be coincident with the beginning of the currently available historical data. It's important to understand that the price action of cryptocurrency, time and time again, quite gracefully exhibits the truly chaotic and volatile, yet cyclical and orderly, fractal nature of free markets.

All markets, including youthful and vibrant juans such these, are *representations of the collective mood or feelings about a particular good. In 2022, what greater good could there be than the wealth of ideas and knowlege circulating throghout society, shaping it's development? In the same breath, we can say that cryptocurrencies are, in many ways, not all that different from ideas, or like all money, MEMES. As crazy as that sounds, these memes have now breached a
collective market capitalization of Trillions of dollars! And boy has it been a wild roller-coaster ride. Dogecoin is quite literally a coin based around a silly meme. Such meme, much WOWOWOWOW!

This dynamic free-flowing collective appraisal of value exists 24/7, whether or not someone is even around to publicly register it. Considering the above, it is only logical to assume that the easily obtained, recorded price history of Doge would not necessarily coincide with exact listing of this meme on exchanges.

DETERMINING THE PROJECTED START TIME AND PRICE OF THE PRECEDING TREND
Meticulously applying a host of subtle Elliot Wave techniques allowed me to deduce the starting point (Time and Price) for both Doge pairs as around June 24, 2013 with a price of $0.000006 plus or minus three ten-thousandths of a penny. Please keep in mind (pun not intended) that this start date does not necessarily represent the conception of the idea in Jackson Palmers mind (and thus inception of value by the universe) but rather the beginning of a significant trending wave. The former had to precede the latter, and for all we know, could have existed when Jackson was a young lad way back when. Or in the posts of some 4chan hooligans mixin it up only to be later materialized into code by Jackson when the time was right. Presumably it would have been after 2009/Bitcoin but really the meme itself could have had much longer legs. So many possibilities, much wow.

Anyway, the heart of this projection stems from the DogeBTC chart, then it all pretty much grows from there. It should be obvious to even the beginning student that for the vast majority of time (on both pairs) Doge trades in long, consolidating Price ranges with huge emotional breakouts and breakdowns in quick, violent spurts testing the extremes of each side of the market, whipsawing it's participants. This type of behavior is classic corrective, non-trending price action. While there is a strong argument to be made (and juan I agree with) that both pairs break out into an impulsive 'trend' a midst the 2021 crypto bull, it's essential to realize how this piece fits within the greater puzzle. The key to which involves the fractal nature of the wider theory. You see, corrections contain impulses (at a lower degree) and impulses contain corrections! And so on and so forth. It's like a russian nesting doll (careful with your sanity here, the deeper you go, the more likely you are to tie your brain into knots, quite dangerous really without the proper training). Let me give you the secret to success: mind the distinction between an impulsive C wave and an impulsive 1, 3, or 5. **Impulsive waves within corrections generally retrace greater than .618% as opposed to the others which generally retrace less than .618%**

Internalize the fact that correcting a correction (really an impulse within a correction) is where all the opportunity lies my frens. And there you have it my friends...the keys to the castle. But I digress. Back to DogeBTC. Outside of the nearly impossible scenario that this impulse represents, pragmatically, a wave 1 (in other words on the way to not only overtaking Bitcoin in the coming decades but shattering it), this impulse necessarily must represent a wave C of some degree. Seperate from the reality that there's less of a chance of that happening than my little sister dunking a basketball (she's 5'3 over 200 pounds), the reaction to this wave has already retraced greater than .618 (corroborating my analysis). In other words, we are correcting a correction.

Moreover, given the 2021 rally is an impulsive C, it actually becomes apparent that the preceding 'trend' is (with a high probability) an impuslive A *regardless of C's degree*. The only other realistic scenario would be that it represents a corrective trending A of a now complete flat correction (larger A) of a Triangle or Flat that should have a relative Time, Price, Complexity to the decade long advance, which would be far more bearish than my count which looks for yet one more rally down the road on this pair, and likely a bigger one than our projected impulsive A due to the strength of (expected) terminal C of larger irregular failure B. All in all A-B-C in green/yellow letters is what I like to call an 'unchannelable' zig zag.

24 juil. 2022

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2/2

The long short of it all is that my count is either correct, or things are pretty grim for the future of DogeBTC. The latter of which I wouldn't mind, and 'fundamentally' (sorry I have to lol) really isn't that crazy to consider, as we have publicly pondered in the past. But here's the thing, TA (and mainly EW) is king, and years of experience/mastery tell me that there is a good chance of my count being right. Time will tell, and the price action will evolve to either confirm the above or confirm the dark future for doge. Stay tuned.

Let's wrap this up. Given we are in an irregular failure C of a larger B, there are a ton of clues that inform what should happen next, which helps greatly inform everything else. Wave C looks to be forming a terminal.

The following suggests a Terminal:
-The move down so far is corrective in nature (advances w/in a well contained parrallel channel)
-It would only make sense this corrective move would be a part of a Terminal Impulse as it's the
only pattern that jives with the implied strength to follow in the larger count (it should be retraced within 25-50% of the time it takes to form) ...further this largely informs the projection of the subsequent impulse to follow.

Projecting Terminal C:
-Oh-A is unconventionally 'unclean' ...yet coming C must still move the angle (black box)
-As B of a flat gets bigger, the chances increase significantly that A and C will exhibit equality in price and/or time. In order for C to equal A in Time--it would have to reach 374 bars (1120d) which is pragmatically the same as the grim scenarios I described earlier.
In other words, if its going to relate in Time it will be by .618 (show). Whether or not it does, C is usually the wave that is equal or longer, thus it will compensate for a lack of appropriate Time with equality in Price (Black Box)
-An extended 1st wave terminal (in this case) will likely relate to 3/5 externally (black box)

Projecting the subsequent Impulse C and preceding Impulse A:
-It must begin where Terminal C ends. The logical range for that is from (A x .618) to the estimated Litecoin halving
-Using the mid-point between the two to derive the 25-50% retracement of Terminal C w/in the time it took to form we arrive at our next black box to the upside
-It just so happens that 50% (later part of the range) happens to coincide with an equal length of A
-Price wise, at a minimum, impulsive C of the 'unchannelable' zig zag must make a new high. Similarly, Terminal C must be fully retraced. Thus a new high must be made. Both a simple trendline connecting the two recent major highs, and the implied strength of what follows
an irregular failure (an impulse .618 bigger than the prior impulse) help inform the target black box.
-Lastly, by deriving the price/time of our subsequent Impulse C we can logically deduce a reasonable starting price/time for the preceding Impulse A.
-Important to note that zigzags can not be retraced by wave B more than 99%, thus, in combination with the (already optimistic) projected subsequent C, a fairly small range of possible starting points price-wise is reasonable. Also, B should utimately terminate above .618 of projected preceding A. All of the above informs this projection. In summary: C is already optimistic, conversely, the nature of the length of A of a zig zag and the need for C to not only make a new high, but achieve a .618 bigger relationship than A, make this projection optimal.

Finally, without going to deep, everything explained helps inform and provide a basis for calculating the start date/price for the projected preceding (trending but corrective) wave A on DogeUSD.

*lets out deep breath*

oke...gluck