There has been so much talk about the US dollar falling - yet six months ago the talk was about US dollar shortage - that hasn't happened.
Relative to itself the US dollar is 27% higher than in 2008 during the GFC (could build a chart for that) regardless the point is don't write off the Greenback yet.
The latest rally has pushed down the US Dollar * - but it remains at the bottom of the channel, which I published last summer and is attached.
What is interesting is that commercial players were short the USD back in May and of course they were right according the Commitment of Traders. Today however both large speculators and commercials are flat.
This is an interesting inflection point. If someone out there has an answer to what lies ahead for the USD then we''ll all know which way to put our money to work in the equity markets.
Opinions welcome.
Incidentally the only investors out there that are long the USD are retail speculators according to the COT.
* The US dollar going down is most likely responsible for US Equities market going up.
DXY
