Trends heading into a conflict area; Other factors in review

17 janv.

So I chose to cash out my trade at 4760 for about $2250. Trends have a huge case to send us lower, especially if the 6hour keeps signaling lower. All the trends between 30m and 4hr are ALL in a lower low downtrend at the moment.

The trends are as follows;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ES Contract)
30m - 4778 Downtrend (1/17/2024) Lower Low
1Hr - 4761 Downtrend (1/17/2024) Lower Low
2Hr - 4790 Downtrend (1/11/2024) Lower Low
3Hr - 4790 Downtrend (1/11/2024) Lower Low
4Hr - 4777 Downtrend (1/8/2024) Lower Low
6Hr - 4797 Uptrend (1/8/2024) Higher High
12Hr - 4762 Downtrend (1/3/2024) Higher Low
Daily - 4378 Uptrend (11/3/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4769 Uptrend (12/11/2023) Higher High
**Note - The 1hr was signaling during the video, it did solidify since so I included the updated in this brief.

That will put the 30m to 6hr downtrends against the 12hr violated uptrend, and pending daily higher low uptrend as well once it signals. As I explain in the video, I see the potential of a conflict zone here, and given my significant profit for the month already, I will likely look elsewhere for additional trades for the moment.

Other things to look at-
Earnings;
We are in Earnings season. Mostly banks this week. They have been mixed overall. Next week is a much bigger week with Microsoft, Netflix, Tesla, and more reporting. To note, there has not been a negative earnings season overall yet recently, even during the bear market of 2022 into 2023.

Economic Data;
Fed Waller spoke about small and few rate cuts, that the market is overly optimistic in the view of how many cuts they expect, and the retail sales data today supports the FOMC ability to choose not to cut rates until they feel very confident inflation is down and will stay that way.

Geopolitical;
Tension in the Middle East continues to rise, so I'd keep having an eye on that. If oil prices surge (they haven't, in spite of attempts by OPEC to make them and general sentiment they will) that will bleed back into inflationary pressure.

My overall sentiment;
Shorter Term - Neutral
Short Term - Neutral
Medium Term - Neutral/slight bullish
Long Term - Bullish

My ZM contracts were stopped out today unfortunately, as I picked up December contracts that didn't nearly pop up like the other ZM contracts of 2024, so I am on the hunt for other potential investments for the moment. Many of those are currency exchanges such as 6J, 6A, and potentially the 6E again if it drops a bit more.

Safe trading, and remember your risk management.

17 janv.

Note

Saw a typo when I looked back...
"and pending daily higher low uptrend as well once it signals" should read "and pending daily higher low DOWNTREND as well once it signals"
sorry for the confusion!

18 janv.

Note

So we pushed lower than where I had gotten out, but it didn't last, we ended higher, and are higher so far today. I will be taking today off and going skiing, so I'll check back in at the end of the day but will leave these notations for any one curious.

The upward movement of today has trigger a lower high uptrend 30m and currently potentially a lower high 1h uptrend if we hold up here for this hour (until 8am EST).

The next several timeframes may not be overly helpful, as the 2hr, 3hr, and 4hr all have the potential to show higher high uptrends even though they just showed lower low downtrends (the pacman look I've discussed before).

Overall, potentially some murky waters ahead, although I still see the potential for some down movement to take profit at some point here still.

19 janv.

Note

So, while the 2hr, 3hr, 4hr all had lower low downtrends, they now also have higher high uptrends from upward movement from yesterday into this morning. A 12hr uptrend is currently signaling, but would need to hold up here until 1pm EST in order to hold the signal.

The good news for the short side, is if the 12hr uptrend hits, we could still drop enough to recover new lower lows on the 2-4 hr timeframes, and the higher low downtrend of the 12hr would no longer be violated (although the next daily downtrend will still be a higher low).

This movement is why I mentioned several times I was hesitant to bet against the earnings season. The big upward movement was from Taiwan Semi, who reported great earnings, and that resonated across most of the tech sector.

19 janv.

Note

For those looking for a hope that the market can come back down to save them if they went short, yesterday did close with a sell signal for the MACD Momentum algorithm I wrote.

To note, historically, a signal on an already obvious movement (such as a sell signal after several down days) actually tends to be an opposite signal at around 70%, but a signal in opposition to the current movement (such as a buy signal after several down days) tend to be accurate at around 80%.

HOWEVER, full disclosure, this has been horrible for prediction during this last major movement up since October of 2023. While there was a buy signal on 10/31/2023 (opposition signal) which was a great buy signal into this massive rally, it gave false sell signals on 11/10/23, 11/21/23, and 12/20/23, with one good buy signal on 1/10/24 (obvious signal for reversal) that did signal a good short position briefly. So in the last 3 months, these signals are running at only 40% in successful prediction.

19 janv.

Note

Earnings today are all less relevant companies (in terms of the S&P 500), so aside from continued optimism from yesterday and some minor housing market data, today's movement won't have any obvious reasons to surge or fall in either direction. Barr of the FOMC does speak at 13:00 EST, and there is this Atlanta Fed GDP thing at 13:00 also, so maybe keep an eye for the latter half of the day to push in some movements.

I don't plan to jump in Long at the current positions here since I think the market is a bit overheated, but I am not ready to jump in short at this time.

23 janv.

Note

Given the current overheated market to the upside, but only the 1hr calling for a reversal, I will be sitting out probably until I see some weakness below 4845. It is likely I'll sit out the remainder of this month, unless something significant occurs.

PCE comes up this week, and we have plenty of Earnings this week to keep things volatile, though it appears most of the theme is AI and that theme is taking us higher regardless of a lack of potential rate cuts in the near future.