Bearish Divergence on Bitcoin and OBV
I ran a Neural Network on BTC, VIX, VVIX, CMF, and OBV vs the S&P 500 in 2017,2018,and 2019 and applied it out-of-sample to 2021 and achieved 63% accuracy with a 24 hour lag and a balanced confusion matrix. BTC was the most important factor in the model.
Of course TV is too primitive to use R or upload a sheet.
To put it bluntly: Bitcoin is a leading indicator for the S&P 500 which you can clearly see from the chart.
More believably, OBV is showing incredible bearish divergence on this second bounce from the 50 Day EMA suggesting a move lower in the coming days. This (now 4176) trade is void on a close above the central trend line. Short with confidence and a clear exit plan in mind (4200+). In my data science testing of DXY against next trading day /ES performance, I found a rather weak predictive power, but for what it's worth the dollar seems to be surging against many pairs today.
1. Entry: Now
2. Criteria for exit: close above 4200 or BTC close above 40k on any day
3. Confirmation: BTC dips below $38,000 on Sunday.
4. PT: 50 Day EMA
Of course TV is too primitive to use R or upload a sheet.
To put it bluntly: Bitcoin is a leading indicator for the S&P 500 which you can clearly see from the chart.
More believably, OBV is showing incredible bearish divergence on this second bounce from the 50 Day EMA suggesting a move lower in the coming days. This (now 4176) trade is void on a close above the central trend line. Short with confidence and a clear exit plan in mind (4200+). In my data science testing of DXY against next trading day /ES performance, I found a rather weak predictive power, but for what it's worth the dollar seems to be surging against many pairs today.
1. Entry: Now
2. Criteria for exit: close above 4200 or BTC close above 40k on any day
3. Confirmation: BTC dips below $38,000 on Sunday.
4. PT: 50 Day EMA
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