Another trade war cycle almost complete

After news broke that Trump had secured another China trade meeting for early October and solid ADP numbers we broke the range we traded in for August. Non farm payrolls was a miss but not bad enough to fall back into range. Fed Chair Powell's comments shortly after the non farm payroll miss eased concerns and setup another potential rate cut in two weeks time. Assuming CPI and PPI aren't shockingly bad I except a slow grind up heading into the FoMC meeting with expectations of rate cuts off-setting any small misses on data. The market is still pricing in a cut of 50/75 bps which is once again more than what we will probably get. Another 25 bps cut seems more likely. I am biased long on a very short term basis. Only bullish until FoMC, possibly until next trade talks in Oct as my best case scenario. I think at that point we will rinse and repeat the cycle. If we look at the VIX we've been in decline all week so its good to see the put buying frenzy subside. The front end contango is looking strong so we should see VIX ETP's drop off assuming we don't get anymore data hiccups this week. Once again I am technically bullish in this very moment, but unless we get a combination of strong data, substantial rate cut relief, and a radical reversal on trade talks I think any attempt at new highs will be short lived. Last weeks data was mixed and its likely we will see that trend continue. https://youtu.be/jxQmm5lHHPc

Commentaire:

The link above is a recap of my two best trades on ES last week and some market commentary