S&P500, and the Chinese Lunar New Year
The S&P500 appears to be in a bind... or rather, in a triangle, with attached conditions.
You see, in 2021 thus far, we see that the S&P500 rallied and consolidated in a triangle in early Feb and flew off the handle on a rally that recently stalled, just before the Chinese Lunar New Year (CNY). Thus far, the February rally had been running on a bearish divergence on technical factors (See the PMI (lower panel) and MACD (lowest panel)).
While all is well and (seemingly) bullish in the year of the Ox (bull), Price range of the S&P500 is now consolidating in triangle, and within a tight range. This tight range consolidation appears to coincide with the First Day of the Chinese Lunar New Year. This indicates to a model where a lot of the money in the market has an Asian source. And when Asia is pretty much shut down during CNY, everything, including market liquidity and volatility slows. This is a far out model projection, but one I think is nonetheless significantly plausible.
So, now we wait... for breakout or breakdown.
PS. I also noted that the Crypto market is stalling on low volumes, similar background model projections appear too.
You see, in 2021 thus far, we see that the S&P500 rallied and consolidated in a triangle in early Feb and flew off the handle on a rally that recently stalled, just before the Chinese Lunar New Year (CNY). Thus far, the February rally had been running on a bearish divergence on technical factors (See the PMI (lower panel) and MACD (lowest panel)).
While all is well and (seemingly) bullish in the year of the Ox (bull), Price range of the S&P500 is now consolidating in triangle, and within a tight range. This tight range consolidation appears to coincide with the First Day of the Chinese Lunar New Year. This indicates to a model where a lot of the money in the market has an Asian source. And when Asia is pretty much shut down during CNY, everything, including market liquidity and volatility slows. This is a far out model projection, but one I think is nonetheless significantly plausible.
So, now we wait... for breakout or breakdown.
PS. I also noted that the Crypto market is stalling on low volumes, similar background model projections appear too.
