Trends Calling for a Lower Move
Mis à jour
So, as I explain, all the trends currently are in lower modes, except the Daily. I don't see the Daily beating out every other trend at this time, though I would like to see a Daily Uptrend, be it if we are going to head higher or lower, just so that it is on board and updated.
Currently I'm Long at 4468 because trends maxed themselves out yesterday to the down. At each uptrend mark I've been watching to see if I need to bounce out and prepare for a lower move. I'm currently looking to see perhaps a 2hr uptrend before we head lower, but we will see what happens.
Trends into today are;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ESZ Contract)
30m - 4492 Uptrend (9/20/2023) Lower High
1Hr - 4499 Uptrend (9/20/2023) Lower High
2Hr - 4510 Downtrend (9/15/2023) Lower Low
3Hr - 4529 Downtrend (9/15/2023) Lower Low
4Hr - 4517 Downtrend (9/15/2023) Lower Low
6Hr - 4499 Downtrend (9/15/2023) Lower Low*
12Hr - 4469 Downtrend (9/19/2023) Lower Low
Daily - 4535 Downtrend (8/10/2023) Higher Low
Weekly - No Data
Economic Calendar;
FOMC Rate Decision - Obviously this will dictate some market movement, though I don't know how much. I'd more watch the press conference for any potential forward guidance, though I expect very little.
US Budget;
The US is yet again having issues passing a budget. Shocker. This is what dropped our credit rating. It isn't an imminent threat but I'd keep an eye on this news story, and try to do so from a non politically bias site (I use allsides).
Geopolitical Tension;
There is still tension in the world. I'd keep an eye on China and Taiwan mostly.
Oil Prices;
This is an issue that oil prices are rising, as this could raise headline inflation and tends to bleed into core inflation.
The Long Position;
Not sure I'd jump in at a long position now if you don't have one. Maybe a strong move up past 4500, but then watch that it doesn't reverse as I expect a reversal to the downside based on 30m/1hr trends.
The Short Position;
I may run short from the 4500 position. I'm looking to see if we can't get a bit higher, maybe 4510 or so, but will keep evaluating as it goes. Every hour at this moment is basically giving me an indication of that reversal, even if it is brief.
Ultimately I am;
Shorter Term - Neutral
Short Term - Bearish
Medium Term - Neutral/Bearish
Long Term - Bullish/Neutral
Safe trading, and remember your risk management position.
Currently I'm Long at 4468 because trends maxed themselves out yesterday to the down. At each uptrend mark I've been watching to see if I need to bounce out and prepare for a lower move. I'm currently looking to see perhaps a 2hr uptrend before we head lower, but we will see what happens.
Trends into today are;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ESZ Contract)
30m - 4492 Uptrend (9/20/2023) Lower High
1Hr - 4499 Uptrend (9/20/2023) Lower High
2Hr - 4510 Downtrend (9/15/2023) Lower Low
3Hr - 4529 Downtrend (9/15/2023) Lower Low
4Hr - 4517 Downtrend (9/15/2023) Lower Low
6Hr - 4499 Downtrend (9/15/2023) Lower Low*
12Hr - 4469 Downtrend (9/19/2023) Lower Low
Daily - 4535 Downtrend (8/10/2023) Higher Low
Weekly - No Data
Economic Calendar;
FOMC Rate Decision - Obviously this will dictate some market movement, though I don't know how much. I'd more watch the press conference for any potential forward guidance, though I expect very little.
US Budget;
The US is yet again having issues passing a budget. Shocker. This is what dropped our credit rating. It isn't an imminent threat but I'd keep an eye on this news story, and try to do so from a non politically bias site (I use allsides).
Geopolitical Tension;
There is still tension in the world. I'd keep an eye on China and Taiwan mostly.
Oil Prices;
This is an issue that oil prices are rising, as this could raise headline inflation and tends to bleed into core inflation.
The Long Position;
Not sure I'd jump in at a long position now if you don't have one. Maybe a strong move up past 4500, but then watch that it doesn't reverse as I expect a reversal to the downside based on 30m/1hr trends.
The Short Position;
I may run short from the 4500 position. I'm looking to see if we can't get a bit higher, maybe 4510 or so, but will keep evaluating as it goes. Every hour at this moment is basically giving me an indication of that reversal, even if it is brief.
Ultimately I am;
Shorter Term - Neutral
Short Term - Bearish
Medium Term - Neutral/Bearish
Long Term - Bullish/Neutral
Safe trading, and remember your risk management position.
Note
Cashed out this last time we hit 4508 for $2000. I will likely sit out the rest of the day since it is Fed Day, and I just don't feel energetic enough to deal with all that.Note
I have gone Long, cautiously, at 4478. We acquired a 30m and 1hr downtrend, which puts us at maximized downtrend at the time. I was hoping for a pop into the 2hr to help clear the way for us to go lower. We do have some room to hit the 12hr downtrend already there, but in the short term I think we could move back up towards 4500 briefly, yet again. Could be a sideways market here with a close range bound area. I won't hold this trade negative much though.Note
Took a loss of $200 on that trade. Will likely go back to sitting out for the moment.
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