$ES_F Long, possible dead cat bounce?

The market has transitioned back into a more mean-rev phase so I dont expect bull rallies to survive for long. Also shorts are likely to be more profitable since trend following indi's have printed bearish. But use this long to capitalize on a dead cat bounce that could happen. Im not sure that it'll go up to close the gap at 4590.

Trades:
Trade 1
Long 4400, sl 4370, tp 4460, 4470 (close).
moderate conviction. im more confident of getting initial negative returns upon entry given the lack of bull divs and exhaustion from indis. but i do have a higher conviction of hitting the tp targets. ~4420 is another bull entry but expect wicks to 4400.

Trade 2
Short 4465, sl 4500, tp 4370, 4300, 4200
low conviction, has a high likelihood of getting stopped out. wouldn't recommend it unless there's a severe bear reaction with some volume, which you'd should market in. but place a tight sl.

Trade 3
short 4545, sl 4620, tp 4470, 4370.
moderate/high conviction, assuming the short term bear trend is intact. this trade expects negative returns once entered but covers the case of the gap being covered.

Commentaire:

Trade 1 stopped out.
Cancelled trade 2 and 3. Im not certain that we'll fill the gap at 4590.

Replaced with a short at 4465 with a SL at 4600, same tp targets as trade 2 and 3 but include 3800. As much of a mean-rev environment we may now be in we can certainly drop at 4100-4200 before printing another rally. I get quick sand vibes atm where people want to short a large upward rally, but aren't given an opportunity to do so. I'm willing to accept a wider stop loss for now if I'm under the belief 4634 is a local top.

Overall, switching the trade to ignore the possibility of deadcat bounce for now

Commentaire:

Bull momo forming since 4360 will likely take us to 4460.
Cutting the short moving to a long at 4415, sl 4390, tp 4455, 4470, 4500
Will likely close it on Thursday EOD.