Ethereum / TetherUSShort
Where and when should we start accumulating Ethereum?
The current price action as of 12th June 2022 is probably spooking people quite a bit. It should be becoming clear to even the most ardent bull, that we are in firmly a bear market.
There could be calls for a bounce here, but the wider macro environment is seeing liquidity being sucked out of the economy so institutions are not looking for risk-on assets right now. I heard someone on a podcast describe crypto as a 'liquidity sponge' the other day andthat comment stuck with me.
Also, there is simply not the capitalisation in retail to support prices. Yeah, I know, Eth 2.0, and the merge and deflationary Eth etc (wasn't 1559 all about deflationary ETH?). How many people do you know outside of crypto who even know what a smart contract is? Trends tend to continue and the current trend is down. If you can sit through anther 40-50% drawdown from here, then there's nothing to stop you getting long expoure here, for your HODL account, but I have paperhands, and don't trust myself not to sell at $1,000 if I did go in here.
The narrative is that the Fed has to get inflation under control. We've had too many years of stupidly low interest rates and that needs to be fixed, and it seems like Jerome Powell is really focussed on that.
Long term, I am bullish on Ethereum. The merge does not bring down fees, so its not viable yet. Once we get sharding, that is when fees come down and it starts to look a lot more appealing to businesses leveraging micropayments for work performed.
So when to buy?
Well, not yet for me.
Ethereum is a beta play to Bitcoin. There is a fair chance we lose $1440. There is a fair bit of downside momentum and just because we are due a bounce, doesn't mean we'll get it. If we do loose 1440, That will spook some investors who believe that crypto cannot fall below it's prior cycle ATH. (Reframe that,... it has not before now, but that doesn't mean it can't happen). We might get a little bounce here, but I am not expecting it to sustain. There needs to be accumulation before we get any significant appreciation in price.
I'm going to be stalking $950 USD, as that is the trend based1.618 fib extension but it depends on what BTC is doing at that time and when it happens. It could be a reasonable place to start dollar cost averaging in to a position.
For those of you guys who follow Bob Loukas 4 year cycle, you'll know we are due a new 4 year cycle low in BTC in the last quarter of this year. (Apologies if I have misquoted Bob). The 200 weekly MA has been a good place to buy BTC in prior bear markets. What will be the effect on Bitcoin OGs if we lost that this cycle, and what would be the effect on Ethereum?
The best time to buy Ethereum will be the very moment you have completely lost interest.
Thoughts?
There could be calls for a bounce here, but the wider macro environment is seeing liquidity being sucked out of the economy so institutions are not looking for risk-on assets right now. I heard someone on a podcast describe crypto as a 'liquidity sponge' the other day andthat comment stuck with me.
Also, there is simply not the capitalisation in retail to support prices. Yeah, I know, Eth 2.0, and the merge and deflationary Eth etc (wasn't 1559 all about deflationary ETH?). How many people do you know outside of crypto who even know what a smart contract is? Trends tend to continue and the current trend is down. If you can sit through anther 40-50% drawdown from here, then there's nothing to stop you getting long expoure here, for your HODL account, but I have paperhands, and don't trust myself not to sell at $1,000 if I did go in here.
The narrative is that the Fed has to get inflation under control. We've had too many years of stupidly low interest rates and that needs to be fixed, and it seems like Jerome Powell is really focussed on that.
Long term, I am bullish on Ethereum. The merge does not bring down fees, so its not viable yet. Once we get sharding, that is when fees come down and it starts to look a lot more appealing to businesses leveraging micropayments for work performed.
So when to buy?
Well, not yet for me.
Ethereum is a beta play to Bitcoin. There is a fair chance we lose $1440. There is a fair bit of downside momentum and just because we are due a bounce, doesn't mean we'll get it. If we do loose 1440, That will spook some investors who believe that crypto cannot fall below it's prior cycle ATH. (Reframe that,... it has not before now, but that doesn't mean it can't happen). We might get a little bounce here, but I am not expecting it to sustain. There needs to be accumulation before we get any significant appreciation in price.
I'm going to be stalking $950 USD, as that is the trend based1.618 fib extension but it depends on what BTC is doing at that time and when it happens. It could be a reasonable place to start dollar cost averaging in to a position.
For those of you guys who follow Bob Loukas 4 year cycle, you'll know we are due a new 4 year cycle low in BTC in the last quarter of this year. (Apologies if I have misquoted Bob). The 200 weekly MA has been a good place to buy BTC in prior bear markets. What will be the effect on Bitcoin OGs if we lost that this cycle, and what would be the effect on Ethereum?
The best time to buy Ethereum will be the very moment you have completely lost interest.
Thoughts?
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