EURUSD shorts still in play: EU downtrend continuation scenario

23 oct. 2018

EU took a serious dip based on politics with Italy, while the Dollar was also going strong.
Dollar remains strong, and Italy politics unlikely to reach any certainty soon.

There IS the ECB rate decision, conference, etc coming up.
That MIGHT give Euro some kind of boost, so my confidence in this path will depend on what Mario says/does.
But DOUBTFUL that ECB will offer anything but more of the same, or maybe they EXTEND the QE, which will drag Euro down hard.

So lets see how this week plays out.
This week could be crucial for the EU cross going into EOY.

Will try to update as price action reaches interesting zones.'

Background:
My EU shorting adventure began in early 2018 while looking for a top around 1.2500

As that top was forming, I saw the Fibs giving me some clues for down move to start

Once it started dropping, I fined tuned the Fibs and EW count to arrive at 1.1500 ad mid target, and 1.070 as final target

I have since been shorting bounces whenever possible, such as per my last plan

Which brings me to the current plan, looking for next pit stop at 1.135

24 oct. 2018

Note

Finally, after stalling all Monday, wave C looks to be under way

24 oct. 2018

Note

Nice, EU just hit my (C) point, but dont know if it will bounce here, looking very week

24 oct. 2018

Note

well, zone was definitely noticed, some profit taking for sure, waiting to see if bulls jump in

24 oct. 2018

Note

EU hit target and then some Looks quite week, not sure if a D bounce will even happen.

I am thinking that rather than an 'abcde', we are in a '12345' sub structure of the wave V, maybe something like this

We have ECB rate decision in lest that 24 hours. I will post a new Idea after that craziness produces some more clues.