EUR/USD: 'Random price action' may represent a 4th wave Triangle

10 août 2015

Many traders were confused by Friday's post-NFP rebound in EUR/USD. Actually, this pair has been a source of confusion for quite a while, which, for example, led JPMorgan analysts to call it 'random price action' in a client's note. Generally, when market participants have a hard time explaining price swings, we are in a 4th wave or wave B position in terms of Elliott Wave Theory. In this case, a 4th wave Triangle is becoming more likely to develop. Under this scenario, the price is heading in the direction of the first resistance cluster at 1.1168-1.1195 to complete wave C. A higher resistance stands at 1.1255-1.1286. To confirm upward bias, I'm looking for price to break the upper boundary of the pitchfork. This requires a daily close above 1.0980, and that is our criterion to turn bullish in the short term.

Major calendar risk for EUR/USD this week:
Tue, German ZEW Economic Sentiment report;
Thu, US Retail Sales data;
Fri, German Prelim GDP and Flash eurozone GDP report.