$EUR v $USD - Nascent Geo Eyes Low, Then High Targets | #euro

8 nov. 2015

QUICK ANALYSIS:

As per recent analyses in USD major and minor crosses, the unanimous technical voice speaks of a decline in the US Dollar. It would take invalidation events in all of these charts (see today's analyses in NZDUSD, USDCAD, USDCHF USDMXN, USDNOK, USDZAR, as well as XAUUSD and #USDollar charts where a variety of technical points are tending towards a degradation of the USD, fully understanding that this statement occurs at the week-end of a #Fex statement of a probable rate hike in December).



On a pure technical basis, which is what all of these analyses derive their data (quantitative supplies data to the Predictive/Forecasting Model, whereas proprietary geometries supply the background of high-probability interim moves), the bias supports a rally in the #euro.


PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL:

The "Model" defined two sequential targets, first a probable moderate decline, followed by a probable rallying, such that:

1 - TG-Hi = 1.13205 - 07 NOV 2015

AND

2 - TG-Lo = 1.06987 - 07 NOV 2015

-- Note that a prior TG-Hi target (faded yellow i the upper chart) has been invalidated.


GEO:

The Geo is a refinement of the Wolfe Wave, taking into account geometric compensation - See a example provided today in the GBPAUD here: - The entire analysis can also be found here: bit.ly/1NAURse )

In this particular chart, it remains a bit premature to define the borders of the Geo. However, combined with the Predictive/Forecasting Model, the technical resolution improves significantly, such that the the following outlines appear:




INVALIDATION:

While this speculative analysis hinges on two of my most reliable instruments (Predictive/Forecasting Model at the foreground and proprietary geometries at the background), it remains an exercise of probability, which at this time favors a rallying from, then into the aforementioned values.

For a more concrete invalidation level, I suggest that 1.04613 be regarded as an adverse excursive value to use for such invalidation to occur.


OVERALL:

All USD analyses completed to this day each pronounce a decline in the US Dollar, by one technical format or another. In addition, antipodean references, such as #gold, XAUUSD, JNUG all call for their own strengthening.

A prudent approach would seek invalidation of these analyses in just a few of the posted charts to keep the trader's foot off of an uncertain terrain - Do the due, and consider all this content purely educational.

Best,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA


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8 nov. 2015

Note

ADDENDUM:

Please, review this long-term analysis of the USDollar Index - Click on image to get to original analysis:

(Source: bit.ly/1NAZpPe)

In essence, price completed a sustained ascent to a nodule (consolidation) where from a controlled decline is likely to occur. It is this decline that is expected to be reflected in the USD decline heralded in the aforementioned minor and major crosses.

Whether fortuitous or ominous, this is all we have to go by ...

Best,

David Alcindor

9 nov. 2015

Note

09 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Looking at the same morphology and adjusting the Predictive/Forecasting Model to the DAILY level, here is what results - Pretty much a similar play as in the 4-hour chart:



David Alcindor

9 nov. 2015

Note

09 NOV 2015 - Chart Update:

No change in forecast ... First, TG-Lo = 1.06987 defined on November 07th, 2015 remains intact and in force. Expecting a push to TG-Hi = 1.13205 thereafter.



David Alcindor

10 nov. 2015

Note

10 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price hit bearish "TG-Lo = 1.06987 - 07 NOV 2015" target - Reversal remains a high-probability event as forecast:



David Alcindor

12 nov. 2015

Note

12 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

As forecast, price continues to define a reversal pattern following Quant-Target validation at 1.06987, defined on November 07th, 2015.

As current price action carves a higher low and higher high, expect on interim consolidation allowing price to carve a "lower higher-high" (Hint: E.A.G.L.E. strategy):



David Alcindor

4 févr. 2016

Note

03 FEB 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

A 3-4 Leg neared completion. Remember that Point-4 remains the most elusive point in these 5-plot geometries, and that Point-5 remains the most consistent point, along the 1-3 Line:


At this point, I will NOT attempt to refine the 1-4 Line until point-4 becomes certain.

Best,


David Alcindor

10 févr. 2016

Note

09 FEB 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

EUR v USD: Hit Nov 2015 target; Probable reversal To Geo Pt-5:


Best,


David Alcindor

26 févr. 2016

Note

26 FEB 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price remains tethered to original forecast, having hit targets 3 and 4, and falling in the footprint of the larger geometry, as price continues to fall along the dashed arrow:


Best,

David Alcindor

18 mars 2016

Note

18 MAR 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

As price recoils to the recent target level, I have redefined Point-4 of the larger geomtry as shown in the chart:


Also, consider 1.01446 a high probability target, defining Point-5 of that geometry, as completion of this 5-point cycle remains pending at this time.

Note that a corresponding Fibonacci extension of 1.272 is the closest to that Predictive/Forecasting Model's target level of 1.01446.

Best,


David Alcindor