Portier: EURUSD - pending short (pullback and continuation)

Technical analysis:

Subsequent to failing to swing higher past the 1.18 level and price breaking the upward trend line post 1.1750 zone consolidation, we anticipate a minor retest of the 1.1650 zone (intra-day) prior to a bear continuation with a target of the early September lows of the 1.1530 zone.

On a daily timeframe, excluding the mid-August dip and reversal off the 1.13 level, price action has been confined within a sub <300 pip range between 1.15300 - 1.18000. We anticipate price continuing lower this week to test the lower part of this range.

Risk/Reward: 2.25
Risk: 58.8 pips
Pip target: 132.5

Macro risk:
Euro
- Euro area unemployment rate (1/10)
- Italy Markit/ADACI Manufacturing PMI SEP (1/10)
- Germany Markit Manufacturing PMI Final SEP (1/10)
- Euro area Markit Manufacturing PMI Final SEP (1/10)

US
- ISM manufacturing PMI (2/10)
- ADP employment change (3/10)
- ISM non-manufacturing PMI (4/10)
- US unemployment rate (5/10)
- US balance of trade (5/10)
- US NFP report (5/10)

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