EURUSD retracing to 1.1400. How to trade this?

28 oct. 2017

I know many of you jumped on the Crypto wagon, but interesting things still happen in our traditional markets.

For example, EURUSD just made a perfect Head & Shoulders pattern (on a daily level), the kind that you can definitely find in the trading books. If this pattern is to hold then the price should drop around 400 ticks (which is the height of the head measured from the neckline). As most of you more experienced traders know, these pattern projections rarely touch the theoretical target, as market forces come into play. Thus, my support level projection for EURUSD is around the 1.1400 level . As can be seen in this weekly chart, this level holds a combination of support elements:

• it retests the trendline/triangle pattern that it broke in July. Breakouts like these are usually followed by retests of the trendlines;
  
• it matches the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. The market went almost straight up from 1.04 to 1.2 (around 1600 ticks) - a breather is more than welcome in order to sustain a healthy uptrend. If the 38.2% Fibo level holds, it is actually a very good indication that we are in a healthy uptrend.
  
• we have a former resistance area that can now turn into support.
  
• around 1.1300 we have the target level of the head & shoulders pattern. But as I've mentioned earlier, the buyers may come in more quickly to hold the market above the 1.14 level.
  

Just as a caution, before the market continues it's retracement to 1.1400 level, there might be a retest of the neckline around 1.680. Just pay attention to the price action around this level, and it if holds, start building your position for the 1.1400 downward move. Also, if you don't believe in a retest, than at least the 1.680 level can act as a good a good stop level (you still have a >1/2 risk/reward ratio).

I hope this post was helpful and I'm looking forward to any ideas that would improve this trading scenario.

Have a great weekend!
Iulian