GBPNZD Fundamental and Sentiment: Synapse's Idea Re-Analyzed
Mis à jour
PUTTING A FACE to the CHARTS:
This is an expansion of an idea brought on by a fellow trader of mine. While taking a look at the economic calendar, I noticed that there was high impact data coming out for the week of February 15,- 19, 2016 for the currencies of the same pairs he mentioned. So, like every week, I dig and decide to looking a little more deeply at things in a fundamental, sentimental and predictive way to foresee the week, trading in the midst of economic data releases with confidence and an open-mind.
My weekly data journal for GBP and NZD (for the week of February 15,- 19):
Monday, February15, 2016: NZD's 4:45pm Retail Sales q/q; then 9:00pm NZD's Inflation Expectations q/q. I predict that the data will be bad due to leading economic evidence. Even credit card spending data, according to January 25th's report was weak.
So, I look to sell NZDUSD before this time.
Tuesday, February 16, 2016: 4:30am GBP's CPI y/y, I believe will be good news. Since I cannot glean from the PPI, for it comes out at the same time as the CPI data, then I can look to a less market moving data to get a clue as to what the result could be. The BRC Shop Price Index y/y decreased by -1.8% y/y versus a -2% drop tin 2014 the year before; and 2015 BRC retail sales increase by 2.6% y/y. So, that tells me that the CPI y/y could have increased since it deals with inflation.
So, I look to long GBPUSD before this time.
Then, NZD's GDT Price Index report comes out around 7am to 10am on Tuesday (it is tentative data , so we don't know the exact time). It dropped approx. 7% last month, and has been dropping for weeks (globaldairytrade.info/en/product-results/), Given the continual fall in commodities this month, I think it still will reflect a negative price report, but I keep an open-mind.
Wednesday, February 17, 2016: GBP's UKClaimant Count Change, Average Earnings Index 3m/y, Unemployment Rate: If I look at the employment component of the manufacturing and service PMI I find conflicting data here. PMI services tell us that job growth is growing, while the PMI construction and manufacturing tell us that job growth is falling apart. So, will do not open any new trades at this time if I am NOT in a GBP trade already; but wait.
Friday, February 19, 2016: GBP's UK Sales m/m: According to the BRC-KPMG Retail Sales Monitor January 2016, "UK retail sales rose by 2.6% on a like-for-like basis from January 2015 to 9 February 2016."
home.kpmg.com/uk/en/home/media/press-releases/2016/02/brc-kpmg-online-retail-sales-monitor-january-201601.html
So, this immediately tells me in advance that retail sales could be positive. And, the consensus is that it will grow also. So, we have DOUBLE CONFIRMATION!
So, I look for a set up to go long GBPUSD before this time.
Givn the data above, I think GBPNZD will be a good pair to trade, while still trading GBPUSD and NZDUSD in the direction I predict according to the data.
I now delve down and dig a big deeper by first looking at a monthly chart, then going down to a 15 minute chart.
GBPNZD Monthly Qualified and 15 min Qualified set-up, and the 4 hour made a new high:
So, I am looking to buy a pull back on GBPNZD for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday in harmony with what we have on the menu with the economic calendar.
Monthly:
Weekly:
Daily:
4-hour:
15-min chart:
Back-up Plan: If everything doesn't work out right, and I am stopped out, I plan to get right back in at the golden ratio: BACK-up PLAN:
My ultimate goal as a trader is to put a "FACE" to the charts. And this goal, I have accomplished this week.
I target 2.3533 according to the monthly chart, a 1950 pip
This is an expansion of an idea brought on by a fellow trader of mine. While taking a look at the economic calendar, I noticed that there was high impact data coming out for the week of February 15,- 19, 2016 for the currencies of the same pairs he mentioned. So, like every week, I dig and decide to looking a little more deeply at things in a fundamental, sentimental and predictive way to foresee the week, trading in the midst of economic data releases with confidence and an open-mind.
My weekly data journal for GBP and NZD (for the week of February 15,- 19):
Monday, February15, 2016: NZD's 4:45pm Retail Sales q/q; then 9:00pm NZD's Inflation Expectations q/q. I predict that the data will be bad due to leading economic evidence. Even credit card spending data, according to January 25th's report was weak.
So, I look to sell NZDUSD before this time.
Tuesday, February 16, 2016: 4:30am GBP's CPI y/y, I believe will be good news. Since I cannot glean from the PPI, for it comes out at the same time as the CPI data, then I can look to a less market moving data to get a clue as to what the result could be. The BRC Shop Price Index y/y decreased by -1.8% y/y versus a -2% drop tin 2014 the year before; and 2015 BRC retail sales increase by 2.6% y/y. So, that tells me that the CPI y/y could have increased since it deals with inflation.
So, I look to long GBPUSD before this time.
Then, NZD's GDT Price Index report comes out around 7am to 10am on Tuesday (it is tentative data , so we don't know the exact time). It dropped approx. 7% last month, and has been dropping for weeks (globaldairytrade.info/en/product-results/), Given the continual fall in commodities this month, I think it still will reflect a negative price report, but I keep an open-mind.
Wednesday, February 17, 2016: GBP's UKClaimant Count Change, Average Earnings Index 3m/y, Unemployment Rate: If I look at the employment component of the manufacturing and service PMI I find conflicting data here. PMI services tell us that job growth is growing, while the PMI construction and manufacturing tell us that job growth is falling apart. So, will do not open any new trades at this time if I am NOT in a GBP trade already; but wait.
Friday, February 19, 2016: GBP's UK Sales m/m: According to the BRC-KPMG Retail Sales Monitor January 2016, "UK retail sales rose by 2.6% on a like-for-like basis from January 2015 to 9 February 2016."
home.kpmg.com/uk/en/home/media/press-releases/2016/02/brc-kpmg-online-retail-sales-monitor-january-201601.html
So, this immediately tells me in advance that retail sales could be positive. And, the consensus is that it will grow also. So, we have DOUBLE CONFIRMATION!
So, I look for a set up to go long GBPUSD before this time.
Givn the data above, I think GBPNZD will be a good pair to trade, while still trading GBPUSD and NZDUSD in the direction I predict according to the data.
I now delve down and dig a big deeper by first looking at a monthly chart, then going down to a 15 minute chart.
GBPNZD Monthly Qualified and 15 min Qualified set-up, and the 4 hour made a new high:
So, I am looking to buy a pull back on GBPNZD for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday in harmony with what we have on the menu with the economic calendar.
Monthly:
Weekly:
Daily:
4-hour:
15-min chart:
Back-up Plan: If everything doesn't work out right, and I am stopped out, I plan to get right back in at the golden ratio: BACK-up PLAN:
My ultimate goal as a trader is to put a "FACE" to the charts. And this goal, I have accomplished this week.
I target 2.3533 according to the monthly chart, a 1950 pip
Transaction en cours
First campaign into GBPNZD has been fiiled. 14 hours to go before the big event starts for NZD dta release: Waiting for more orders to be filled if it happens.
Transaction en cours
In buy territory: I decided to flip the charts upside down to see it what I see is solid.
11 hours to go before the big events begin.
Note
5 hours to go! Going to take a rest.Note
With retail sales in the NZD acting as a catalyst, I expect a further catalyst in the CPI of the GBP (the UK) on Tuesday at 4:30am Eastern Standard Time, as I planned out in the weekly calendar in this journal.Note
NZD's GDT Price Index report comes out around 7am to 10am (1 hour away). They may change the time. So, heads up!!Note
Waiting for signs of buyers between 2.10 and 2.06.
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