Wires are busy reporting the Brexit crash in the financial markets across the globe. On forex markets, the first line is common - Pound slides/Pound drops to 30-year low ...etc. etc.
However, Cable hasn't really crashed. The pair traded at 1.40 last Thursday. So at the current price of 1.37, Able is down just 300 pips. Note that rally in Cable from last Thursday's low of 1.4013 o so was on hopes of Bremain. If there was Bremain we could have anyways come down to 1.45 in coming days due to profit taking and possible rise in Fed rate hike bets.
Hence, today's fall though unprecedented, does not represent panic. Markets just wiped out Bremain hope rally move (1.50-1.40) and then priced-in Brexit (1.50-1.3226).
This does not mean we are going higher from here. However, I wish to bring to notice that it is not a Cable meltdown. There is a high possibility that Cable could indeed move back above 1.4 if the monthly closing is above 1.3478.
The overall outlook remains bearish as long as the monthly falling trend line remains intact. There are number of political risks that could unfold going forward and the area around the falling trend line could see a sellers come-in.
If taken out on at least weekly closing basis, the risk would shift in favor of a more sustained rise.
However, Cable hasn't really crashed. The pair traded at 1.40 last Thursday. So at the current price of 1.37, Able is down just 300 pips. Note that rally in Cable from last Thursday's low of 1.4013 o so was on hopes of Bremain. If there was Bremain we could have anyways come down to 1.45 in coming days due to profit taking and possible rise in Fed rate hike bets.
Hence, today's fall though unprecedented, does not represent panic. Markets just wiped out Bremain hope rally move (1.50-1.40) and then priced-in Brexit (1.50-1.3226).
This does not mean we are going higher from here. However, I wish to bring to notice that it is not a Cable meltdown. There is a high possibility that Cable could indeed move back above 1.4 if the monthly closing is above 1.3478.
The overall outlook remains bearish as long as the monthly falling trend line remains intact. There are number of political risks that could unfold going forward and the area around the falling trend line could see a sellers come-in.
If taken out on at least weekly closing basis, the risk would shift in favor of a more sustained rise.
