GBPUSD Dramatic Downside Action Probably Imminent after 1.4025
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Wave count looks like this triangle is forming at the endpoint of wave (C) of a bearish 4th wave (started October 2016) of a downward 3rd wave in a larger impulse.
Wave A up and B down of the triangle completed on February 24th and April 12th. Wave C up is nearing completion at a suspected target of 1.4025 to 1.4040 of a thrust from a smaller triangle between May 3rd and 7th within wave C. 1.4025 is the post-triangle thrust measurement. Nearby 1.4040 happens to be the point where wave C would be 0.618 of what wave B was.
After wave C completes, wave D down would commence. It seems that 1.3810 to 1.3818 is a likely target for wave D, as it would be 0.382 of wave B while also 0.618 of predicted wave C. Wave D may bottom in late May, and wave E peak in early June, if the timespan for each successive wave continues at a rate of around 0.618 the time of the preceding wave.
If that all holds true, the downside target for the thrust of the 5th wave (completing either wave 3 or perhaps only the first wave of wave 3 down) might reach down into the 1.11 area, then followed by further consolidation and more downside action. If the bearish 4th wave from October 2016 is going to form a contracting triangle, rather than end in 3 waves, then the downside thrust would have to stop and turn up above 1.1414 in order to generate a further wave (D) and (E) before completing a downward thrust most likely much deeper than 1.11.
Wave A up and B down of the triangle completed on February 24th and April 12th. Wave C up is nearing completion at a suspected target of 1.4025 to 1.4040 of a thrust from a smaller triangle between May 3rd and 7th within wave C. 1.4025 is the post-triangle thrust measurement. Nearby 1.4040 happens to be the point where wave C would be 0.618 of what wave B was.
After wave C completes, wave D down would commence. It seems that 1.3810 to 1.3818 is a likely target for wave D, as it would be 0.382 of wave B while also 0.618 of predicted wave C. Wave D may bottom in late May, and wave E peak in early June, if the timespan for each successive wave continues at a rate of around 0.618 the time of the preceding wave.
If that all holds true, the downside target for the thrust of the 5th wave (completing either wave 3 or perhaps only the first wave of wave 3 down) might reach down into the 1.11 area, then followed by further consolidation and more downside action. If the bearish 4th wave from October 2016 is going to form a contracting triangle, rather than end in 3 waves, then the downside thrust would have to stop and turn up above 1.1414 in order to generate a further wave (D) and (E) before completing a downward thrust most likely much deeper than 1.11.
Note
Watching this C wave rise..to quote Ian Curtis of Joy Division, "When will it end? When will it END?"It did hit and linger around 1.4040 and then began extension after extension of 5th waves, like relentless C waves do. Perhaps it was going for .786 of wave B. It's got something to prove, definitely. All extensions it has made should be retraced swiftly once it does end.
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