October 25 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, News
Description:
An analysis for the week ahead.
Points of Interest:
$3,406.75 Excess Low; $3,470 Balance-Area High.
Technical:
Broad-market equity indices ended the week lower with S&P 500 retracing nearly 40% of the rally that began after the September sell-off.
During Last Week’s Action: Alongside waning fiscal stimulus hopes, U.S. index products failed to show continued confidence to explore higher.
Instead, as the week progressed, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi walked back her deadline for a fiscal stimulus deal. After the initial drop on Monday, equity indices remained range bound until Thursday’s session saw responsive buyers establish an excess low at the conjunction of multiple visual references. The buying continued into Friday’s close, at the high-end of the weekly range.
Overall, the market’s failure to range-extend, in either direction, is a sign of minimal conviction. Currently, the market is in the thick of an earnings season, elections are nearing, and stimulus talks are off-and-on. Given that the week ended in balance, a clear change in perception will be followed by successful range extension in either direction. Adding, given Thursday’s responsive buying, there are good odds the market may make another attempt higher, confirmed by range-extension above $3,470 in the S&P 500. If participants were to auction into the $3,406.75 excess low, then the odds of downside follow-through increase substantially.
Fundamental:
In its global weekly commentary, BlackRock Inc (NYSE: BLK) suggested the most recent resurgence of COVID-19 is not a replay of the spring. bit.ly/3otiXvi
"We believe daily new infections are likely a fraction of the peaks then, and rising case counts are having a diminishing negative impact on mobility. The economic restart has been quicker than expected, but the part that remains will be hardest. We do not expect a similarly large hit to economic activity as seen in the spring.”
Adding, however, the report noted that the economy is facing challenges as the pace of growth begins to slow. Risks to the near-term recovery include fading fiscal stimulus, a prolonged or worsened pandemic, geopolitical tensions, and election complications.
Key Events:
Monday: Chicago Fed National Activity Index, New Home Sales.
Tuesday: Durable Good Orders, House Price Index, CB Consumer Confidence.
Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, Goods Trade Balance, EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change, EIA Distillate Stocks Change.
Thursday: GDP Growth Rate, Jobless Claims, Core PCE Prices QoQ, GDP Price Index, Pending Home Sales, PCE Prices QoQ.
Friday: Core PCE Price Index YoY, PCE Price Index YoY, Core PCE Price Index MoM, PCE Price Index MoM, Personal Income MoM, Personal Spending MoM, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final, Michigan Inflation Expectations Final.
Recent News:
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Sunday said the latest plan for aid is under review. reut.rs/2Toc7Jh
U.K.’s NHS is preparing to introduce a coronavirus vaccine soon after Christmas. bit.ly/34rPqtY
Commercial real estate, specifically office and lodging, faces greatest uncertainty. bit.ly/3kuyJ71
Economy recovering slowly through October, but some sectors are still struggling. reut.rs/34sJH7u
Policy drive toward transformation of health insurance poses risk to profitability. bit.ly/34xk31v
General Motors Co (NYSE: GM) investing $2 billion to build EVs in Tennessee. reut.rs/37NeHkm
Intel Corporation’s (NASDAQ: INTC) sale of memory business a credit positive. bit.ly/3dTYomU
Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ: GOOGL) breakup may be needed to end antitrust violations. reut.rs/3dY57fW
China’s recovery lifted industrial commodities as its economy improved materially. bit.ly/2J6bWR9
Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) raised its full-year outlook after a third quarter beat. reut.rs/3opC09Q
American Express Co (NYSE: AXP) issued a dismal outlook on travel, entertainment. reut.rs/3kupkML
Unacceptably high unemployment, low rates of resource utilization to rein in yields. bit.ly/2J6bWR9
Union Pacific Corp (NYSE: UNP) reported a bigger-than-expected drop in profit. reut.rs/3e2Rj3B
American Airlines (NASDAQ: AAL), Southwest Airlines (NYSE: LUV) call for aid. reut.rs/2J6bu5p
Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) released “Full Self Driving” software upgrade to drivers. reut.rs/3dVu8YY
AstraZeneca (NASDAQ: AZN), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) resuming trials. reut.rs/34q1xYy
How blank-check acquirers could reshape emerging companies’ roles in markets. bit.ly/3ku1PU0
Fintech startups broke apart financial services and now the sector is rebundling. bit.ly/31G1HJv
Texas Instruments Inc’s (NASDAQ: TXN) revenue outperforms, outlook improves. bit.ly/3dTYomU
China banking law changes will improve bank capital and formalize bank resolution. bit.ly/3dTYomU
Business activity rose to a 20-month high as pace of new growth and orders eased. reut.rs/2TlfLDU
Courts rule against Uber Technologies (NYSE: UBER), Lyft Inc (NASDAQ: LYFT). reut.rs/37ECOlm
Canada’s annual inflation rate rose in September, as retailer sales growth softened. reut.rs/3dW95p1
FDA has approved Gilead Sciences Inc (NASDAQ: GILD) antiviral drug remdesivir. cnb.cx/3orPty8
Central bank digital currencies would compound current digital disruption for banks. bit.ly/3dTYomU
The 2020 election could permanently change the way the United States does voting. bit.ly/3mirxLC
Pandemic, remote work causes migration to small towns near public lands, resorts. bit.ly/37DNSPA
Almost 60% of mutual fund assets will be ESG by 2025, according to a PwC forecast. bit.ly/3kt41ed
Google Inc’s (NASDAQ: GOOGL) dominance is reflected in search startup funding. bit.ly/3otxvLM
President Vladimir Putin saw no need for global oil producers to change supply. reut.rs/3mpYmGn
More companies are offering earnings guidance, signaling adaptation to uncertainty. reut.rs/34pVq6w
The third quarter could be the ‘biggest quarter of growth’ in United States history. bit.ly/3moDUpk
Verizon Communications Inc (NYSE: VZ) beat estimates for its third-quarter profit. reut.rs/3jmLbEs
Purdue Pharma LP agreed to plead guilty to criminal charges over prescription opioid. reut.rs/3oqIfKQ
European Union to cut Canada, Georgia and Tunisia from “white list” travel countries. reut.rs/34tVz8Y
Key Metrics:
Sentiment: 35.7% Bullish, 31.2% Neutral, 33.0% Bearish as of 10/21/2020. bit.ly/330VhEp
Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) 2,051,710,147 as of 10/23/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Dark Pool Index: (Trending Neutral) 40.9% as of 10/23/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Disclaimer:
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me.
In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
An analysis for the week ahead.
Points of Interest:
$3,406.75 Excess Low; $3,470 Balance-Area High.
Technical:
Broad-market equity indices ended the week lower with S&P 500 retracing nearly 40% of the rally that began after the September sell-off.
During Last Week’s Action: Alongside waning fiscal stimulus hopes, U.S. index products failed to show continued confidence to explore higher.
Instead, as the week progressed, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi walked back her deadline for a fiscal stimulus deal. After the initial drop on Monday, equity indices remained range bound until Thursday’s session saw responsive buyers establish an excess low at the conjunction of multiple visual references. The buying continued into Friday’s close, at the high-end of the weekly range.
Overall, the market’s failure to range-extend, in either direction, is a sign of minimal conviction. Currently, the market is in the thick of an earnings season, elections are nearing, and stimulus talks are off-and-on. Given that the week ended in balance, a clear change in perception will be followed by successful range extension in either direction. Adding, given Thursday’s responsive buying, there are good odds the market may make another attempt higher, confirmed by range-extension above $3,470 in the S&P 500. If participants were to auction into the $3,406.75 excess low, then the odds of downside follow-through increase substantially.
Fundamental:
In its global weekly commentary, BlackRock Inc (NYSE: BLK) suggested the most recent resurgence of COVID-19 is not a replay of the spring. bit.ly/3otiXvi
"We believe daily new infections are likely a fraction of the peaks then, and rising case counts are having a diminishing negative impact on mobility. The economic restart has been quicker than expected, but the part that remains will be hardest. We do not expect a similarly large hit to economic activity as seen in the spring.”
Adding, however, the report noted that the economy is facing challenges as the pace of growth begins to slow. Risks to the near-term recovery include fading fiscal stimulus, a prolonged or worsened pandemic, geopolitical tensions, and election complications.
Key Events:
Monday: Chicago Fed National Activity Index, New Home Sales.
Tuesday: Durable Good Orders, House Price Index, CB Consumer Confidence.
Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, Goods Trade Balance, EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change, EIA Distillate Stocks Change.
Thursday: GDP Growth Rate, Jobless Claims, Core PCE Prices QoQ, GDP Price Index, Pending Home Sales, PCE Prices QoQ.
Friday: Core PCE Price Index YoY, PCE Price Index YoY, Core PCE Price Index MoM, PCE Price Index MoM, Personal Income MoM, Personal Spending MoM, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final, Michigan Inflation Expectations Final.
Recent News:
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Sunday said the latest plan for aid is under review. reut.rs/2Toc7Jh
U.K.’s NHS is preparing to introduce a coronavirus vaccine soon after Christmas. bit.ly/34rPqtY
Commercial real estate, specifically office and lodging, faces greatest uncertainty. bit.ly/3kuyJ71
Economy recovering slowly through October, but some sectors are still struggling. reut.rs/34sJH7u
Policy drive toward transformation of health insurance poses risk to profitability. bit.ly/34xk31v
General Motors Co (NYSE: GM) investing $2 billion to build EVs in Tennessee. reut.rs/37NeHkm
Intel Corporation’s (NASDAQ: INTC) sale of memory business a credit positive. bit.ly/3dTYomU
Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ: GOOGL) breakup may be needed to end antitrust violations. reut.rs/3dY57fW
China’s recovery lifted industrial commodities as its economy improved materially. bit.ly/2J6bWR9
Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) raised its full-year outlook after a third quarter beat. reut.rs/3opC09Q
American Express Co (NYSE: AXP) issued a dismal outlook on travel, entertainment. reut.rs/3kupkML
Unacceptably high unemployment, low rates of resource utilization to rein in yields. bit.ly/2J6bWR9
Union Pacific Corp (NYSE: UNP) reported a bigger-than-expected drop in profit. reut.rs/3e2Rj3B
American Airlines (NASDAQ: AAL), Southwest Airlines (NYSE: LUV) call for aid. reut.rs/2J6bu5p
Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) released “Full Self Driving” software upgrade to drivers. reut.rs/3dVu8YY
AstraZeneca (NASDAQ: AZN), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) resuming trials. reut.rs/34q1xYy
How blank-check acquirers could reshape emerging companies’ roles in markets. bit.ly/3ku1PU0
Fintech startups broke apart financial services and now the sector is rebundling. bit.ly/31G1HJv
Texas Instruments Inc’s (NASDAQ: TXN) revenue outperforms, outlook improves. bit.ly/3dTYomU
China banking law changes will improve bank capital and formalize bank resolution. bit.ly/3dTYomU
Business activity rose to a 20-month high as pace of new growth and orders eased. reut.rs/2TlfLDU
Courts rule against Uber Technologies (NYSE: UBER), Lyft Inc (NASDAQ: LYFT). reut.rs/37ECOlm
Canada’s annual inflation rate rose in September, as retailer sales growth softened. reut.rs/3dW95p1
FDA has approved Gilead Sciences Inc (NASDAQ: GILD) antiviral drug remdesivir. cnb.cx/3orPty8
Central bank digital currencies would compound current digital disruption for banks. bit.ly/3dTYomU
The 2020 election could permanently change the way the United States does voting. bit.ly/3mirxLC
Pandemic, remote work causes migration to small towns near public lands, resorts. bit.ly/37DNSPA
Almost 60% of mutual fund assets will be ESG by 2025, according to a PwC forecast. bit.ly/3kt41ed
Google Inc’s (NASDAQ: GOOGL) dominance is reflected in search startup funding. bit.ly/3otxvLM
President Vladimir Putin saw no need for global oil producers to change supply. reut.rs/3mpYmGn
More companies are offering earnings guidance, signaling adaptation to uncertainty. reut.rs/34pVq6w
The third quarter could be the ‘biggest quarter of growth’ in United States history. bit.ly/3moDUpk
Verizon Communications Inc (NYSE: VZ) beat estimates for its third-quarter profit. reut.rs/3jmLbEs
Purdue Pharma LP agreed to plead guilty to criminal charges over prescription opioid. reut.rs/3oqIfKQ
European Union to cut Canada, Georgia and Tunisia from “white list” travel countries. reut.rs/34tVz8Y
Key Metrics:
Sentiment: 35.7% Bullish, 31.2% Neutral, 33.0% Bearish as of 10/21/2020. bit.ly/330VhEp
Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) 2,051,710,147 as of 10/23/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Dark Pool Index: (Trending Neutral) 40.9% as of 10/23/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Disclaimer:
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me.
In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve (myself especially), so if you see something wrong, speak up.
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