Value Stock Ideas with 40% forward dividend yield for H2

7 sept. 2021

First step is to predict the volume of sales
Long products — 320 thousand tons
Premium products — 1400 thousand tons
Flat hot-rolled products — 1600 thousand tons
Semi-finished products — 50 thousand tons
Finished products — 3370 thousand tons

Second step is to update the change in product prices
And we leave the weighted average consolidated selling price of finished goods - $980 per tonne, an increase of 3.8% q/q

Third step is to update the cost of the cash-cost slab
Which is highly dependent on world prices for iron ore and coal, with self-sufficiency by 25% and 40%
We update the forecast for the 3rd quarter of the price of the iron ore component of the cash-cost slab with an increase of $30 to $269 through correlation with the futures price on Iron Ore CFR China 62% Fe, but in the 4th quarter the price will already return to $204.
We update the forecast for the 3rd quarter for the coal component of the cash-cost slab - $79 per tonne by $16.5 more q/q
We receive a forecast of the cost of cash-cost slab 391 + 30 + 16.5 - $ 437.5 per ton
We calculate using the formula:
EBITDA per tonne = Sales of finished products (USD / t) - Slab Cash cost (USD / t) - Other production costs (USD / t) = 980-437.5-115 = $427.5 per ton of finished production, a decrease of 2.4% q/q.

We calculate financial indicators for the 3rd quarter of 2021
Revenue - $ 3302.6 million to increase by 1.5% q / q (3370 * 980)
EBITDA - $ 1,380.7 million decrease by 3.8% qoq including the effect of duties $ 60 million (3,370 * 427.5-60000)
Profit - $ 1017 million (1380.7-125) * (1-0.19)
Total NWC - a decrease by $ 259 million due to a significant decrease in world prices for iron ore and a decrease in prices for finished products due to the introduction of temporary duties on inventories (1425 * (0.4 * 0.33 + 0.20 * 0.25))
FCF - $ 1,045 million, an increase of 92% q/q (EBITDA-Change in PSC-CAPEX-Taxes = 1380.7 + 259-350-245)
Dividend - $0.11. an increase of 222% taking into account compensation over a cappex ((1045 + 350-175) / 11174.33) or 9.4% in quarter

Let's estimate the financial indicators for the 4th quarter of 2021

Revenue - $ 3,042 million (3,200 * 914 * 1.04) decrease by 16% q / q
EBITDA - $ 1482 million (3200 * (914 * 1.04-437.5-115 + 65)) an increase of 7% due to a decrease in the cost of a ton of cash-cost slab by $ 65 due to a decrease in world prices of iron ore by 33%
Total NWC increase by $ 100 million due to seasonal accumulation of stocks
Profit - $ 1099 million (1482-125) * (1-0.19) FCF - $ 965 million (EBITDA-Change in PSC-CAPEX-Tax = 1482-100-271-146)
Dividend - $0.1 ((FCF * 100% + compensation for extra capex) * Ruble rate / number of shares = (965 + 300-140)/11174.33 or 9.4% in quarter