2025-02-24 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaq
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Bears have turned 21650 (last weeks low) resistance, which is a huge sign of strength. Their problem is, that they could not break below the previous bear trend line and as long as that holds, we could have another bounce from 21400 up to 500 or 600. It’s a clear bear wedge and I think the next push down would bring us much closer to the bull trend line around 21200. For now I still don’t have any confidence in the bears to make new lows below 20900.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 21000 - 21700
bull case: Bulls bought the dip but it keeps dipping. They failed to get above Friday’s low 21650 and after 2h of trying bulls gave up and we closed at new lows. Bulls now need to keep the bear wedge alive and buy 21400 to test back up to 21500 or 600. Market is respecting the trend lines and 1h ema. So don’t bet on a breakout of either. Wait for it to happen and tag along. Bulls can only turn this neutral with consecutive 1h closes above the 20ema.
Invalidation is below 21300.
bear case: Bears did amazing, which is surprising to me. They have no erased 2 weeks of gains in 3 days. Interesting to say the least. Lower targets are 21200, followed by 21000 and 20940. The bear wedge is valid until broken and I wait for the Globex open to see if bulls buy 21400 or bears want blood. I do think it’s more reasonable to expect the trend lines to hold and chop some up to at least 21500 and getting closer to the 1h ema before we can have a third leg down.
Invalidation is above 21700.
short term: Bearish near the 1h 20ema or upper bear wedge line. Would be amazing to see 21000 this week but for now I still have doubts.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-02-23: Neutral since we are in a 4-5 month trading range. Still leaning heavily bearish for this year but for now it’s sideways until we get consecutive daily closes below 20000.
trade of the day: Buying the Globex open obviously and then shorting 21600 once we broke below the 15m ema again at bar 52 or 53.
comment: Bears have turned 21650 (last weeks low) resistance, which is a huge sign of strength. Their problem is, that they could not break below the previous bear trend line and as long as that holds, we could have another bounce from 21400 up to 500 or 600. It’s a clear bear wedge and I think the next push down would bring us much closer to the bull trend line around 21200. For now I still don’t have any confidence in the bears to make new lows below 20900.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 21000 - 21700
bull case: Bulls bought the dip but it keeps dipping. They failed to get above Friday’s low 21650 and after 2h of trying bulls gave up and we closed at new lows. Bulls now need to keep the bear wedge alive and buy 21400 to test back up to 21500 or 600. Market is respecting the trend lines and 1h ema. So don’t bet on a breakout of either. Wait for it to happen and tag along. Bulls can only turn this neutral with consecutive 1h closes above the 20ema.
Invalidation is below 21300.
bear case: Bears did amazing, which is surprising to me. They have no erased 2 weeks of gains in 3 days. Interesting to say the least. Lower targets are 21200, followed by 21000 and 20940. The bear wedge is valid until broken and I wait for the Globex open to see if bulls buy 21400 or bears want blood. I do think it’s more reasonable to expect the trend lines to hold and chop some up to at least 21500 and getting closer to the 1h ema before we can have a third leg down.
Invalidation is above 21700.
short term: Bearish near the 1h 20ema or upper bear wedge line. Would be amazing to see 21000 this week but for now I still have doubts.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-02-23: Neutral since we are in a 4-5 month trading range. Still leaning heavily bearish for this year but for now it’s sideways until we get consecutive daily closes below 20000.
trade of the day: Buying the Globex open obviously and then shorting 21600 once we broke below the 15m ema again at bar 52 or 53.
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Publications connexes
Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et les publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou des recommandations en matière de finance, d'investissement, de trading ou d'autres types de conseils fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.