I bought calls on this dip lol MSTR

22 nov.

Massive dip due to market skepticism.

People really don't understand...

22 nov.

Transaction en cours

I actually use MSTX for calls, it's cheaper XD

22 nov.

Trade fermée: cible de profit atteinte

- by mistake I used trade active for the first comment, I want to add a comment so I'll add it below.

I mean, the trade is active since it was posted (since the red line) but I'm adding some info after the fact.

22 nov.

Note

Citron research is wrong.
They caused the sudden price drop because they figured the stock is overvalued. They are totally wrong in assesing the stock.

MSTR holders are only interested in extra bitcoin yield.
To us, Bitcoin price doesn't matter.

I see a lot of articles emphasize the risk of Michael Saylor's strategy, however, the structure of his debt is very good for this purpose.

He is leveraged a lot, but the bet on Bitcoin that MSTR is providing is simply amplified Bitcoin. That's the only risk, whether you can handle volatility.

And yes, because of the way MSTR is financing the future Bitcoin purchases, they are definitely creating a bubble.

Not only that, but the more the Bitcoin price grows, the more MSTR grows, and on top of that, the MORE Michael Saylor wants to buy Bitcoin because he can issu more stocks and bonds. But as he buys more Bitcoin, he also increases the price of bitcoin which closes the loop.

This is identical to real estate Cantillonares.

On top of that is diluting stocks in the fiat world while simountainously providing a higher concentration of Bitcoin per stock for the holders. In Bitcoin terms, the stock is actually anti-dilutionary, it's getting more and more concentrated.

If you are a Bitcoin maximalist, this is the greatest speculative attack on a currency EVER. And it's attacking the dollar $$$ hahaha

My biggest fear is that this could escalate pretty quickly and someone may stop it by force.

I also hope that Michael Saylor stays true to his strategy so that people who invest with him can be fully aware of what the future will look like.

This is actually quite brutal, I have a feeling that something doesn't add up, but the truth is, it probably doesn't. And now we can see that on such a crisp clear example.

Good luck guys!

23 nov.

Note

Friends asked me, what about the premium?
Well, the premium is 3-5x which, in conventional finances is actually pretty low.

Citron research is shorting a 3-5x premium company in the world where P/E ratios are normally going over 10-20, for tech stocks over 50.

They are going to get rekt quickly. Premium of 3-5x on a company that brings you 15-20% bitcoin per year is insane.

At an average of 12% yield, for every 1 Bitcoin, Microstrategy will acquire 8-10 more bitcoin over the course of 10 years.

And we are not even calculating what the Bitcoin value could be. Everyone is assesing MSTR risk in $$$, which is completely wrong. That way, you will calculate that the company is EXTREMELY risky and trades at a huge premium.

When you are in the Bitcoin world, MSTR is dirt cheap.

23 nov.

Note

Here Michael Saylor says that MSTR is a MONSTER for Bitcoiners.

It truly is. I don't think that people understand it.

youtube.com/watch?v=Fztho2KqqdU

24 nov.

Note

I have to post this too:

youtube.com/watch?v=P5LKZ1-6BWM

Basically the same thing that the financial system is doing, only with Bitcoin.

Think of that what you will lol.

If I were Michael Saylor, I would use this bet to rob wall street, acquire all the Bitcoin I can, essentially burining it (who knows if we'll ever see any of MSTR Bitcoin being released), and make sure that Bitcoin becomes even scarcer.

24 nov.

Note

Market leverage assesment:
chatgpt.com/share/67433066-250c-8003-8ca2-dc7f65c80e92

I am limited with the data, but under some assumption, BTC price action from 20k to 64k in 2021. was driven by about 12x leverage.

Today, we are at over 18x leverage.

Use this information as you wish. This is important for risk assesment and the risk may be very very high.

24 nov.

Note

Because this is such a complex topic, I am adding some opinions:

Every bear case for MSTR:
youtube.com/watch?v=3IlR0GbUMXE

What people get wrong about MSTR (by Dylan LeClair):
youtube.com/watch?v=bTrdWIVc9aM

24 nov.

Note

My bet could very well be a mistake, so I don't encourage anyone to replicate it. I am just going to leave some long term pro MSTR arguments here, but in the near term it's not worth buying if you are a Bitcoin maximalist (better to just buy Bitcoin).

I am going to let this play out and see, but I will probably try to reduce my position next week as I can still collect a hefty premium from my old positions.

This will be difficult to decide and it will rely heavily on the news and short squeezes, and the effect of "premium squeezers" on the Bitcoin price.


1. MSTR holds virtually no risk if BTC falls. They can cover their debt with cashflows.
2. Convertible bond debt is removed if the stock gains 40%, they swap the bond for the stock at the original price and amount and burn the debt. But than that company can dump MSTR on the market to realize gains.
3. Stock qualifies for Nasdaq100
4. Stock maybe qualifies for S&P500 too
5. I'm not 100% sure about this, but apparantly there is still a lot of money around the world that can't be parked directly into Bitcoin, Bitcoin ETF or options, so I'm guessing that those might still be the buyers of MSTR regardless of the premium. We witnessed in many countries with currency collapse, that people are willing to pay over 2x premium just to get some Bitcoin or $$$.
6. Fair value accounting will reveal huge profits, which will draw in more capital from conservative companies.

I don't know. It just might work out. And I have 0 idea what will be the full impact of short squeezes and hedging, because those who want to squeeze the premium out of MSTR, also have to purchase BTC, which is the underlying. To me, it looks like they are just doing the arbitrage between Bitcoin and Microstrategy stock, which should be healthy for the market.

24 nov.

Note

trading-volatility.com/Trading-Volatility.pdf

This will be the guide for our journey. A battle of titans.

24 nov.

Note

Oh yeah, did I mention that Bitcoin liquidity is drying up?
That means that less and less fiat will be needed to push the price up, and MSTR is willing to buy at any price :)

The volatility won't allow ANYONE to efficiently exploit the stock, that's the beauty. Everyone who tries to exploit it will be sucked dry if Bitcoin keeps going up.

What Saylor is offering is stable and guaranteed but lower returns, to the big companies, and embedding the full Bitcoin returns in the company and Bitcoin itself.

Basically, if you hold MSTR, It seems like you don't have to care about the premium that much because sooner or later, MSTR volatility will give you an escape and you will essentialy be given an opportunity to cash in your premium.

He gave us, the Bitcoin holders, this infinitely volatile thing to handle, traders are helping to reduce the volatility and increase efficiency, meanwhile, he is outputting a product that is stable but has lower projected returns than Bitcoin itself.

As a reward for holding and "managing" MSTR stability and financing, instead of buying Bitcoin, MSTR will ensure that all of their investors are made whole over the long term, even if they are not controlling the full bitcoin they could've bought for the same price because of the premium.

This strategy highly relies on fair value accounting, smart convertible bond issuance during the times of low premium, and a massive battle between the traders (hopefully wallstreetbets activates) and hedge funds.

Only I don't think that anyone has to fight for MSTR, this "reactor" as Saylor calls it will simply go through all of it if the Bitcoin thesis is correct. Bear markets won't kill him, but Bitcoin does need to start taking over the world.

Here is the man:
youtube.com/watch?v=Fztho2KqqdU

24 nov.

Note

This was my initial thesis when MSTR was at 114:

And this is from when MSTR traded at a discount to NAV.

Given the new regulations, I believe that MSTR premium can easily go to 30-40-50x.

They wil dilute the common stock to pump Bitcoin even harder, which will lower the premium, the stock will become cheap again, it will regain it's premium and the cycle repeats.

In a world with such a finite amount of Bitcoin, MSTR will take over and hold, essentially "burn" a vaaast amount of Bitcoin, and essentially create a monopoly (like when real estate moguls take over the whole neighbourhood). In the meantime, MSTR will pay the Bitcoiners a hefty reward to release their Bitcoin.

At that point, Bitcoin price is whatever you wish it to be.

This will actually probably work. And the reason why the premium will be 30-50x at least is because that's the equivallent to a P/E ratio of a tech stock, and this multiple will be derived by multiplying the company revenue in terms of Bitcoin holdings (after fair value accounting takes place) which will reveal massive net profit and growth of MSTR.

It's genius.
Michael Saylor is the guy with the gun.

He created the gun and channeled the power of gunpowder. Gunpowder, same as Bitcoin, is a store of energy.

Not only that, he is making sure that nobody else can get the gun. Everyone will have to jump on the bandwagon it's ridiculous.

My plan, of course, is to convert a lot of my premium into Bitcoin and store it in cold wallet, but MSTR bet could be a bet of a lifetime. Leave 30-50 stocks on your account, forget about them, and you never have to worry about your pension.

MSTR will be able to provide limitless Bitcoin based products once they become the biggest holder, their future business is probably in finances based on Bitcoin.

This whole confusion (which is also obvious from my theory development) comes from the fact that we just can't wrap our heads around how upside down this is, but it is a mirror image of our current system, only without the leak.

Money doesn't leak here through inflation. When you hold a large chunk of the reserve currency, that's it. That's your cut, and percentagevize, your cut never changes.

The money is not just extracted from the premium, that's wrong. Because we are not looking at the whole massive circle of market dynamics.

You can't just extract the premium from MSTR by shorting MSTR and longing BTC. You simply can't.

The two are so interconnected that you will wreck yourself.

Check yourself before you wreck yourself.

25 nov.

Note

I get it now.

I think Saylor is trying to make a new "S&P500".

I wish him luck.

25 nov.

Note

I recommend this video:

What could go wrong with microstrategy?

youtube.com/watch?v=TozHW2SPpjQ

25 nov.

Note

Here is the detailed explanation of my thesis and why MSTR will be insane:

youtu.be/CjhhNMaHb3I

25 nov.

Note

I added MSTX Jun20'25 49 Calls

25 nov.

Note

I added them when MSTX was at $116.5.

25 nov.

Note

Bitcoin price will matter, but if it holds, we are about to see some short liquidations :)

MSTR holders won't prodvide them with a $ of profit. None. 0.

25 nov.

Note

We are in control now.

Finally.

26 nov.

Note

I'm not sure if the people are aware of this, but when the "dump" is over and people take their miniscule profits because they don't know how to do it without selling Bitcoin on the market, there won't be any Bitcoin on the market.

The supply is dry.

MSTR won't budge. This isn't a feedback loop downwards spiral setup, this is a feedback loop UPWARDS spiral setup :)

26 nov.

Note

mstr-tracker.com/

27 nov.

Note

Bitcoin on exchanges is steadily decreasing:

coinglass.com/Balance

27 nov.

Note

Someone is still trying to short the premium out of Microstrategy hahahaha

28 nov.

Note

I think I was wrong.

Since options are available on the market, we can make our own MSTR leverage without paying the unnecessary 2.5x premium.

Although MSTR does have some future potential, no matter how I value it, it is difficult to justify the premium.

The problem grows bigger because big money can extract the premium pretty easily through Gamma squeeze, which they have proven yesterday.

Short interest was significantly reduced, without any significant move in MSTR price.

The premium will be extracted in the end. You should sell while the premium is still there, buy it when it comes close to NAV or below.

Maybe in the future (in a year or two) they become a bank, but until then this is unjustified when we look at other options.

Yes, convertible bonds will remain extremely profitable, but just convertible bonds won't be enough to rack up the premium enough to justify the premium that previous holders have paid.

It is an elaborate pyramid scheme (still, like most of finances) that will give MSTR a lot of ownership over Bitcoin at the expense of its investors.

Only some investors will be able to escape, others will have to hold it out until the company figures out how to make this a profitable business.

I still hold my opinion that it is impossible to short MSTR or hedge anything on MSTR.

I will be collecting my premium and leaving as soon as I can.

29 nov.

Note

I want to clarify, every long term MSTR stock investor will be fine.

And it may be smart to do some supplemental gamma squeeze trades.

But mid-term and short term it will be very difficult and unnecessary to use options, or buy the company at such a high premium to NAV.

That said, in the Bitcoin bull market, that premium is what outperforms.

However, it will require ever increasing convertible debt, and I'm not sure what's the capacity for that, and how the rising price of Bitcoin will affect the equation. All I know is that there will be some diminishing returns pretty soon.

29 nov.

Note

Michael Saylor - Why You Can't Buy Bitcoin Fast Enough

youtube.com/watch?v=jIrPbsxWywE

4 déc.

Note

Aaaand those who were patient will now witness a massive short squeeze.

Short interest is comming from market manipulators.

15 déc.

Note

I believe that MSTR may soon start selling bonds with negative interest rates.