Everything about NFLX says Stock Will Tank

25 oct. 2018

Great opportunity to make some money on very short term put options w/ netflix.

Fed Chairman just came out says he's sticking w/ interest rate increases - if trump says something, watch the market implode and weakened Nasdaq cut 2%+
Netflix just issued another 22B in bonds with less than an A rating. The company's Debt to Equity Ratio is already a whooping 166+
Apple just announced it's launching it's own streaming service next year - get ready for stiffer competition and lower prices
Stock is in wave 7 of the S/H/S and in a strong downward channel
On Balance Volume shows current support from buyers is far more limited than angst among sellers. Look for another selloff on Friday.
Look for the 5m 5sma/10sma moving average for put entry
The Put/Call Ratio shows overwhelming negative sentiment towards the stock almost entirely across the board. Green in chart is > 1.04 call to put ratio, Red is > 1.04 put to call ratio.

I wouldn't be surprised if NFLX breaks below $300 tomorrow if the Nasdaq heads south.

25 oct. 2018

Note

Here comes the cross of doom on the 5m

26 oct. 2018

Note

And BOOM goes the dynamite. NFLX, and most of the NASDAQ got hammered overnight. Presently (6:21AM EST), NFLX is down over 5% in after hours trading and trading below the $300 level in the $296-298 range. Overall, the market futures look ominous after GOOG and AMZN both disappointed (despite AMZN showing record profits). Google (Alphabet) missed its revenue mark, while Amazon's sales were below expectations.

While this is all good news if you're short tech, don't eat your cake just yet. Two key economic indicators could either potentially turn the present premarket turmoil into a buying frenzy or we could be looking at Black Friday. 3Q GDP figures come out at 8:30a followed by consumer sentiment at 10a. If the GDP figures miss estimates, those short in the market may break into the Hallelujah Chorus. If GDP remains strong, we'll likely see the aftermarket bear run halted in its tracks.

I can't see Q3 GDP falling below expectations, so it is likely the market will rebound before open. Whether or not that has the momentum to take the overly pessimistic NASDAQ into positive territory after GOOG/AMZN misses has yet to be seen.

At 9:30, I'll be hoping NFLX continues it's accelerated trek to the 250s, but watching any potential gap fills of after hours losses if the bulk of economic data (beyond GOOG/AMZN) is positive. I would almost say it'd be best for NFLX to pull back from its present premarket price of $299.5(6:45a) to yesterday's close in the 312s. We'd almost certainly see the stock fall back to 300 and below immediately after open. If the stock stays low premarket, I'd say the opposite would be true, with daytraders hoping to make a quick buck on a momentary pullback to the $308 range. Bottomline, watch the whipsaw/gap fill when the market opens.