Nifty: Market Structure under Lens

24 juin 2017

Classic definition of a bull market is the market having a structure representing higher lows and higher highs . But when the market breaches a significant swing low, it also breaks the bull market structure.

Why are Swing Lows important?
While most of the long to medium term smart bulls enter at swing lows, many swing traders and medium to long term investors put their stops under these swing lows. The breach of a significant swing low not only takes the prices down sharply but also diminishes the bullish sentiment.

The NiftyIndex has not breached any of the immediately preceding significant swing low made since December2016. Only in April and May 2017 these swing points came under risk but were not broken. So far, this bull market structure has kept the bullish sentiment intact for the bulls to buy the lows.

But the current price action of the market has put the bullish structure under scanner.
Market decisively broke a long term trend line, made a significant swing low at 9560, kept the swings intact and reversed. It then failed to cross the trend line and fell sharply. The bearish candles at these levels are pointing towards further weakness. BUT the swing at 9560 is still not breached and the bullish structure is intact. There could be a possibility that we enter into range bound market OR we may breach 9560.

What if 9560 is breached? Then bull market structure would be broken. Many long to medium term stops would be hit, volatility will increase with wider spreads. The bullish sentiment would be faded, and perhaps we may face a deeper correction.

Lets see how the price action unfolds.
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Trade Safe, Stay Healthy.

Best Regards
Afraidtotrade

25 juin 2017

Note

Disclaimer: I am not an expert in Elliot Wave. Try your own count if it works better.The count is based upon Elliot Wave Oscillator. I am using 5 min. chart because the waves are quite visible on this timeframe. This view is for short term only.

As this count suggests, for the last downleg from 9698, we are currently in wave 5. There are chances that it will extend beyond the low of wave 3. But as we see Wave 3 is an extended one, so wave 5 may not be as big as wave 3. If we take 1:1 price extension from June2017 highs (9709), for an a-b-c type correction, the potential target comes out to be 9550, which could act as a possible support. Wave 5 may end at this level followed by a swift pull back.

27 juin 2017

Note

27 juin 2017

Note

Let's see if this Elliot Count works? Opinions r welcomed.