A New All-Time-HIGH in the coming Week !!

18 nov. 2022

Nifty is expected to make a new all time high next week.

It's good to hold Nifty as long as it is above 18212 level. Each of the resistance marked in red should be the targets, and probable short-term reversal levels.

Very rare chance of Nifty heading below 18164 level, but I've marked the targets in such a scenario.

Trivia - Nifty closed above 18000 on Oct 31st and continued to close above 18 k level since then

Nifty's movements in the last few days is too early to suggest for a reversal. It's just that Nifty is taking it's sweet time to reach a ATH.

The above post is neither a recommendation nor a prediction. Readers are suggested to use their own judgement.

My only suggestion is to keep a stop loss and preserve your capital.

I'll keep updating this post once the markets open on Monday.

Good Luck.

18 nov. 2022

Note

On the options front

PCR is below 1 at 0.74 - and this suggests a bearish view for now.

Calls:
* Currently 18400 calls have the highest OI, followed by 18500 & 18300
* A meaningful up move is possible only when 18300 calls are unwound

Puts:
* 18300 puts has the highest OI, followed by 18000
* We should notice further put OI build between 18000 & 18300, and particularly at 18300. If it doesn't happen, hold your bullish enthusiasm for a while.

21 nov. 2022

Note

It seems my 'expectation' may go wrong..but it's just monday right.

Also, Nifty moved below 18168 into the red zone. So, the index may fall a bit more.

Walls of resistance are being built at each of the Call Strikes.

Highest OI Addition

strikes OI_Chng
18200CE - 90,71,500
18300CE - 71,44,650
18250CE - 40,61,550
18200PE - 27,38,650
18150CE - 21,88,850


and over all high OI strikes
18300CE - 1,46,71,650
18400CE - 1,24,38,700
18200CE - 1,09,03,700
18500CE - 91,85,050
18000PE - 77,71,100

So unless the 18200 resistance wall falls, no chance of any up move.

21 nov. 2022

Note

Nifty made a low at 18136

The day is expected to close below 18210-18230 zone.

Suggest to avoid carrying over night longs.

We may get to enter at lower levels tomorrow.

22 nov. 2022

Note

Nifty opened around 18179 (small gap up), tested the support at 18136, and bounced towards the resistance zone on 18210-18217.

If
-- index fails to break resistance, it will move towards the following targets 18154, 18136 again, and if 18136 is broken, then 18100.

-- index breaks through the resistance zone, buy targets would 18244, 18264, 18283, 18308 for now.

I gave targets for both scenarios. Short below the resistance zone, buy above resistance zone.

Good luck!

22 nov. 2022

Note

Expand the resistance zone to 18210-18229. Bullish if this zone if index breaks through this zone.

Also, a lot of 18200 puts are sold since morning - it's a bullish signal, but wait till index moves above resistance.

That being said, I still feel Nifty has almost equal chance of going either way..so be careful. sit on the side and enter later if possible..

22 nov. 2022

Note

Almost end of the day, we'll see some movement now for sure..mostly an up move.

if i'm risk averse, but i would avoid over night positions - just for the sake of capital preservation. i know i will lose a chance to make money if i'm correct about tomorrow's opening, but market keeps giving opportunities.

22 nov. 2022

Note

Closing Thoughts for the day -

* Nifty moved into the Green Zone finally. As long as it stays in this zone, you can be bullish. That said, I suspect it's too early to celebrate and be bullish. Tomorrow we do need a confirmation.

* A RED FLAG - 18200 Puts that were sold in abundance in the morning, were covered when we saw a bullish move towards the end. The sellers should have boldly left the shorts overnight when the index moved up. Instead they covered them - a bearish signal ?

* PCR is at 0.85

* For tomorrow -
---- If it's a gap down, I would consider buying as long as the index is above 18000
---- If it's a gap up, I would wait a bit before buying the index

Good Luck!

23 nov. 2022

Note

The index is moving in a narrow range.

Lot of 18300 calls are being sold - so mostly it's a rise on sell market.

Nifty is expected to test 18244/18248 support, and if that's broken, then 18211.

Watch if any unwinding happens with 18300 calls, otherwise no point being long.