Indices Stage Dramatics amid increased Volatility
NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS 23-11-21
In this post, I talk about the analysis for the day and the trading range for tomorrow. The video discusses with the help of the charts how the indices as well as leading stocks performed during the day and their likely play tomorrow.
O 17281.75
H 17553.70
L 17216.10
C 17503.30
EOD +86.50 points /+0.50%
SGX Nifty 22-11-21 @ 1905h = +8 points
FII DII = -3065 Crores
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS using 5 Minutes Chart
Nifty made a 200+ points gap down opening action and possibly surprised many traders especially those who may have taken yesterday’s low as the short-term bottom.
It then found support just above 17200 and then never looked back at zones below 17300 for the entire day.
However, the day was not smooth as India Vix increased to 18+ and there were fast and wild swings that are not easily seen even on a 5 minutes chart.
Bank Nifty also ended in the green but relatively underperformed to Nifty.
Nifty has in the process made a lower high and a lower low.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
Top 5 Lifters contributed = 42
Top 5 Draggers contributed = 24
Net = +18
POSITIVES
Nifty closed above 17500.
Bank Nifty closed above 37200.
Reliance has finally halted bleeding was the leader of the lifters pack.
From the Bank Nifty pack, Kotak Bank and SBIN have shown positivity which is good.
NEGATIVES
Surprisingly, Infosys fell sharply - though it recovered a bit but is below 1750 and this may weigh on Nifty tomorrow.
HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and Axis Bank continue to remain weak and this is preventing Bank Nifty to perform at its usual level.
TRADING RANGE FOR 24-26 November 2021
Just as I feared, Nifty broke the back of yesterday’s low [22 Nov], and made a dash towards 17200, but good support around that lifted it to where it ended.
So Nifty support for the week unless broken on the downside appears to be around 17175-200.
Any close below 17820 which was the resistance for 22 Nov may be used a sell trigger.
Bank Nifty found support around 36600 so 36500 may be a good line of defence for now and resistances are plenty and more.
INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS
When the net contribution of the top 5 Lifers and Draggers of Nifty is only 18 out of a total positive of 86, it indicates that there was a much wider change of color from red to green.
The nifty range for the day was almost 60% than that of yesterday, but volatility increased as it dipped sharply at the open. Interestingly, even though it closed above 17500, India Vix is still above 18 indicating further swings.
It is said that - One hot day does not change the weather to summer. Likewise, a close above 17500 when FTSE was in the negative does not mean that the pain is all over.
Bajaj Finance & Bajaj Finserv seem to work in tandem - either these are in the lifters list or in the draggers list. These two may well change the Nifty weightage going ahead.
Yet again, FIIs have sold for more than 4000 Crores - so even if there is a positive open, it is more likely to invite selling.
I am not sure if anyone is tracking the FIN NIFTY index as it is not seen prominently or it is just that I am not looking at it...
What do you feel about this?
Here is the video link --
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
23-11--21
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
---
In this post, I talk about the analysis for the day and the trading range for tomorrow. The video discusses with the help of the charts how the indices as well as leading stocks performed during the day and their likely play tomorrow.
O 17281.75
H 17553.70
L 17216.10
C 17503.30
EOD +86.50 points /+0.50%
SGX Nifty 22-11-21 @ 1905h = +8 points
FII DII = -3065 Crores
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS using 5 Minutes Chart
Nifty made a 200+ points gap down opening action and possibly surprised many traders especially those who may have taken yesterday’s low as the short-term bottom.
It then found support just above 17200 and then never looked back at zones below 17300 for the entire day.
However, the day was not smooth as India Vix increased to 18+ and there were fast and wild swings that are not easily seen even on a 5 minutes chart.
Bank Nifty also ended in the green but relatively underperformed to Nifty.
Nifty has in the process made a lower high and a lower low.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
Top 5 Lifters contributed = 42
Top 5 Draggers contributed = 24
Net = +18
POSITIVES
Nifty closed above 17500.
Bank Nifty closed above 37200.
Reliance has finally halted bleeding was the leader of the lifters pack.
From the Bank Nifty pack, Kotak Bank and SBIN have shown positivity which is good.
NEGATIVES
Surprisingly, Infosys fell sharply - though it recovered a bit but is below 1750 and this may weigh on Nifty tomorrow.
HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and Axis Bank continue to remain weak and this is preventing Bank Nifty to perform at its usual level.
TRADING RANGE FOR 24-26 November 2021
Just as I feared, Nifty broke the back of yesterday’s low [22 Nov], and made a dash towards 17200, but good support around that lifted it to where it ended.
So Nifty support for the week unless broken on the downside appears to be around 17175-200.
Any close below 17820 which was the resistance for 22 Nov may be used a sell trigger.
Bank Nifty found support around 36600 so 36500 may be a good line of defence for now and resistances are plenty and more.
INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS
When the net contribution of the top 5 Lifers and Draggers of Nifty is only 18 out of a total positive of 86, it indicates that there was a much wider change of color from red to green.
The nifty range for the day was almost 60% than that of yesterday, but volatility increased as it dipped sharply at the open. Interestingly, even though it closed above 17500, India Vix is still above 18 indicating further swings.
It is said that - One hot day does not change the weather to summer. Likewise, a close above 17500 when FTSE was in the negative does not mean that the pain is all over.
Bajaj Finance & Bajaj Finserv seem to work in tandem - either these are in the lifters list or in the draggers list. These two may well change the Nifty weightage going ahead.
Yet again, FIIs have sold for more than 4000 Crores - so even if there is a positive open, it is more likely to invite selling.
I am not sure if anyone is tracking the FIN NIFTY index as it is not seen prominently or it is just that I am not looking at it...
What do you feel about this?
Here is the video link --
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
23-11--21
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
---
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