Nifty - Rise only to realise!

10 oct. 2022

Nifty - Bulls weathered the negative cues on Friday, broadly on expectation of softer US Jobs data and the expectation of FED Pivot. This sense was visible else where. As is the recent instances of drubbing, the Jobs data came much stronger than market anticipated, resulting in 90% probability of 75 bps rate hike. Forget the rate cuts in 2023. With this back ground, the dollar rally across even in spaces where there is perceived intervention threat. For us the start of compounding challenges and they all lined up at the same time. Self Inflicting? or the Cognitive Dissonance is the question. Permabulls remain on the narratives than the reality. It is the destruction of the wealth that is under way and the new leaders will be found during this process that has to wait. Clear bear market rallies mis-understood as the end of the bear market. Bear markets of extreme print both price and time bound wounds and while both are significantly visible, we are yet to recognise them. This week holds the way for the bulls or bears. When at 17700, we have clearly indicated move towards 17000 looks tough then, Ditto now moves Will this aramadegon take us below 15K this time is the question. Lets first see how and how fast we move below 16800. Clearly 17500 is the bulls best hope while, bears eye bigger moves ahead. For the day once again gap down going by the clues. This time it would be down and deep. Interesting to see how we close today. Close below 17080 is the first mile stone to bears, while close below 16980 is the best case. For the bulls 17350 close is needed while 17430 close is the best both look for away. Shorts remain with stops 17430 for move past 17000 towards recent low. Not sure how the gap open remain the hour hour high as the stop for the shorts. Higher oil, higher dollar, higher yield, perceived risks on defaults nothing is going in for bulls favour. Stay well protected near the close as the market is prone to gap opens.