reversal trading, medium risk.

15 oct. 2018

4hr: Zones between 0.635 and 0.665 have lots of overlaps in resistance(horizontal, fib and 200ema).
RSI is oversold on the 4hr, but not the daily. We're in a short term uptrend and a long term downtrend.
RSI divergence may signal weakening bulls and possible reversal of short term uptrend.

Entered a short at 0.635, if price reaches 0.66, will place a bigger short position.

Note that nzd is in a trend of weakening amidst the trade war. Personally, I believe cad's weakness is also due for a correction as the nafta fud have passed, and there's no strong fundamental for its weakness.
All these points to continuation in downside, and i speculate this upwards impulse is a correction.

15 oct. 2018

Note

Closed 80% of my position for a small profit at 0.85, looking for a bear flag or a double top confirmation at ~0.855, where i can short aggressively.

Still hold my belief that the zone highlighted is the area for reversal.

15 oct. 2018

Note

Do keep in mind that the CPI for NZD is in 6hrs. A trick is to place ur limit order at key area of resistance aka 0.655

The CPI/GDP of nzd pales in comparison to the scale of the effect that the trade war has. Any sharp rises will be speculative. Expect a continuation of lower highs.