For last many months ( almost a year now! ) New Zealand Dollar is exhibiting the similar pattern. Whenever it looks like NZD/USD is going to drop hard, it pops up right back and starts going up. In our last post we mentioned that NZD/USD has gone too far too fast and it is natural for a currency to pullback but that doesn't mean that we should start shorting it with vengeance.
In our opinion, NZD/USD dips should be bought. Even if RBNZ cuts rate, it is going to be the dip to buy into. Currently we are looking for entries near 0.7000 for quick trade with the thought in back of our mind that that level can give up during the think of the things. But the 200 pip region between 0.6800 - 0.7000 won't give up easily even if things turn around. So in short, we prefer trading it from buy side until it starts closing below 0.67000.
For USD/JPY as we mentioned, there is no need to panic during the dips and one should keep buying it until circumstances changes. We are trading it from long side and ready to add during pullbacks near 103 too.
Present trading conditions are not ideal for buy/sell and forget even though trending characteristics are visible. Every 30 / 50 move in the direction of trade must be grabbed and one should add / reduce the position size accordingly.
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