Ultimate Bear to Begin

Looks pretty ugly. $AUDUSD $EURUSD $DXY $TLT $GLD $GDX

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Seasonality shows AU and NU following gold to a bottom each year around mid December.

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charts.equityclock.c...fxnzd-seasonal-chart

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charts.equityclock.c...es-ad-seasonal-chart

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Shorted this CAM Daily R3 test on the way down. Notice the bounce off the 50 % pitchfork line from the main chart window.

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The descending green line is from the main pitchfork.

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Pathetic rise so far. Notice the 200 BBs on the above 1 HR chart picture (the faded blue bands) and how they are just opening up for MORE and MORE downside. NU is trending hard downward.

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Adding short here on some important backtests

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Nice retracement to near the lows. Converted position to EURNZD long and closing my eyes.

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EURNZD was the right call, trade wars continue and commodities suffer.

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Another hit on that same 50% line of the main pitchfork here. I suspect we just go lower still to the Year CAM S4 near 0.6670 shown on the main chart playback window

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green pitchfork line

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Next target seems pretty clear, the 2017 low of 6780, about 20 pips away from the lows today.

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Worst case scenario is everyone is looking at that same 2017 low about 20 pips from here.... and they pull it up before smashing it down again.

Took about 1/3 of my position off the table.

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2017 Low marked. It should experience a bounce there when it reaches it.

Trade fermée manuellement:

Closed 1/3 of short here on 2017 low test. Could jump up on it with buyers ready.

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If this chooses to spike down on RBNZ rate decision I will dump the entire thing on the added liquidity and wait for another move to short again.

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2017 low was backtested. Support now = resistance. Target remains the Year CAM S4 shown here.

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Close up

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Some bounce here off month CAM S3, added in last short to the Year CAM S4 target.

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Since NU usually has some kind of top in July and this year is such a bad year, I expect only a mild pullback in the next few weeks (if anything), then more rapid downside until october with AU and gold.

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imgur.com/a/CQ6ohy0

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NU weakness persists... still the weakest USD based currency this week down 0.5% for the week even with this pullback.

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This trade is still very much in play. I am revisiting today. Looks good. I wouldn't be surprised to see 2015 lows again sometime in the next 6 months.