ON Semi is fundamentally undervalued and ready for a reversal

Technical View
ON ON bounce off from a bigger support area from 2022 at around $53 building an ascending triangle. We have a gap above our current price (which can function as a magnet for the stock price). A smaller resistance at $60 might be our first target and the bigger resistance at $77 could be our final target resulting in 36% ROI. The trade would be invalidated below $50. Since this is a bigger swing trade, I would not put my SL to close to the current stock price. If you’re interested why this is a mid- to long-term swing trade read the fundamental information below.

Support Zones

• $50-53
  

Target Zones

• $60
  
• $77
  

Fundamental View
ON Semiconductor concluded the third quarter of 2024 with revenue amounting to $1,762 million, reflecting a 2% increase from the second quarter but a -19.2% year-over-year decline. Nevertheless, the revenue for the quarter exceeded the consensus estimate by 0.70%. The most significant revenue losses were observed in the industrial end-market, with figures reaching $439.90 million compared to the average estimate of $464.97 million, marking a -28.6% decrease.

The gross margin experienced a 2% improvement, now constituting 45.4% of total revenue. Looking ahead, the acquisition of GlobalFoundries’ New York plant is anticipated to enhance the company's chip production capabilities. This facility is expected to maintain consistent production costs while simultaneously increasing production efficiency, in anticipation of a future rise in demand.

The stock has decreased by 11.26% on a year-to-date basis, with a reported trailing twelve months (TTM) earnings per share (EPS) of $4.03. Management has reported having over $1 billion in free cash flow and plans, according to Barron’s, to utilize half of each quarter’s cash flow to repurchase shares under onsemi’s Share Repurchase Program. The reduction in investments will contribute to increasing free cash flow margins, thereby reinforcing OnSemi’s objective of returning 50% of free cash flow to investors. This, combined with a projected slight improvement in sales growth and profitability, is expected to elevate EPS to $7.11 by 2027.

Currently, the company's valuation appears reasonable, trading at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.49, which is lower than 90% of the time over the past five years and significantly beneath the S&P 500 P/E ratio as well as the industry median P/E of 25.4. Based on analysts' projections for EPS and maintaining a steady P/E ratio, the company is anticipated to reach a price of $95.91 within the next two years. While this scenario may seem overly optimistic, it is evident that the market is currently undervaluing the stock, especially when compared to its main competitors, such as Texas Instruments and Analog Devices.

Since EV is a superior trend I don’t think Trumps political decision will have an impact. In addition, “Vice President” Musk has a, let’s say, not so little interest in selling more EVs.