ONTX optimism on P3 data and a gap to fill.

19 juin 2020

Key Fundamentals:

• Float: 166.98M (Very high float)
  
• 3.4% Institutional ownership but there's a lot of big boys bought some small amount of shares that you can find in fintel.io
  
• Sale of 27,662,518 shares at the market price of $0.3615 on January 3, 2020
  
• Feb. 4, BIO presentation was received well and sky rocketed from $.3615 upto $0.7 range.
  
• Pump and dump is out of the question because the company have enough cash.
  
• According to the last earnings call "Company continues to expect that its cash and cash equivalents as of March 31, 2020 will be sufficient to fund ongoing trials and operations into the third quarter of 2021."
  
• Announcement of their presentation for BIO Digital 2020 on June 9, 2020
  
• SP skyrocketed on from .47 to .62 from June 10 to June 11, 2020. I'm guessing the presentation from BIO digital was well received by the market.
  
• 25th Congress of the European Hematology Association (EHA) on June 12, 2020
  
  
  Key Catalyst
  
  • IV Rigosertib - INSPIRE in P3. The FDA results is due in 2H of 2020. If you ask me when exactly then the answer is WHO KNOWS?
    
  • Oral Rigosertib and azacitidine in P3 and in SPA
    
  
  
  
  Technical Analysis:
  At least we know that dilution is out of the picture which is typically the stock price goes up significantly then followed by a dilution. Whereas for ONTX price appreciation of late is driven by bio conferences that is a good sign to me. I am not qualified give my insights from the BIO presentation or EHA, but from what I can tell from the charts is the market likes what it saw (see arrow marks). The question now for new comer like myself is, what is a good entry price and what do i look for? . True enough, the price has gone up to 140% since March and appears that the current price is overvalued (see below).
  
  
  
  However, if you look from a bird eye view by zooming out then what we are see is a base forming according to MACD.
  
  
  
  As for the entry, there are signs of good entry and in my opinion, using the Fibonacci is one of the best way since there is no clear date when the catalyst(s) might occur. In my view there's three good entry points and I will arrange from realistic to best.
  
  
  
  
  Considerations:
  
  
  • MACD is curling (see arrow markers).
    
  • ADX DI says the trend is super strong.
    
  • StochRSI states that today it is approaching to oversold area.
    
  • MA10 and MA100 close to crossover.
    
  • MA100 appears to be building a base.
    
  • Volume is still at descent amount.
    
  
  
  Entry points:
  
  • SMA100 because it appears that this becoming a good support
    
  • SMA10 and I think I would use this level for "adding more"
    
  • Fibonacci at .618. This is super long way away and the SMA10 and SMA100 are going to cross very soon. However, who knows right?
    
  
  
  
  
  
  if it did touch the Fibonacci level, then it will likely to start forming a cup and handle. After that is a whopping 17% difference from the last peak! Be mindful that FDA approval is like a toss coin! Be prepared for a substantial loss to upto 90%. However, if my thesis is right then this could potentially fill the last gap at $1.60 (zoom out)
  
  Conclusion: Based on good market responses from the bio presentations, low risks of dilution, and SMA10 and SM100 crossing. I shall take a position tomorrow in three tranches.
  
  
  
  
  

19 juin 2020

Note

Forgot to add the zoom out for the gap to be filled at $1.60

19 juin 2020

Note

21 juil. 2020

Trade fermée: cible de profit atteinte

Sold my 1500 at $1.42. My average costs was $0.6683. I am happy with my exit point and I hope for the best for all longs

22 juil. 2020

Note

Forgot to mention that I suspect that the pop was a simple cup and handle play.