Long QQQ - oversold = free money long-term imho

17 juil.

Look I know it's an obvious trade, and a potentially early one...but c'mon. Long term, can I find anyone who will bet against tech? Any number of individual QQQ components are oversold today, so you could take your pick of them, too. GOOG, MSFT, NVDA, AMZN, etc. and maybe do better trading them. But diversificiation mitigates individual stock risk factors.

I might be early on this trade, as a full blown correction has been a while coming, and it could be a 10% one or more depending on how earnings season goes. But if I had a nickel for every time I've ever missed a profitable potential QQQ trade because I waited too long, I'd have a LOT more nickels than I do now. This one may take a while to work out, but betting on the QQQ is as close to free money as there is in the stock market long term, in my opinion.

Besides, if interest rates are heading lower (and I believe they are), tech will benefit. We saw that after the latest inflation numbers printed. But the celebration was early and now I think everyone was looking for a reason to calm down and book profits until the actual easing happens. If Biden talking China trade restrictions for the chip makers and Trump giving TikTok some love is the excuse, fine. Whatever works. But in my mind, there is nothing macro that tells me this isn't just a normal correction. I'm not even convinced it's gonna be that extreme yet.

Again, it could go lower before it turns around. My response: fine, then I'll add to my position whenever it's oversold. But until someone can convince me that long-term, tech is not a winner I"m taking this trade.

Buying lots as long as it's oversold and selling each lot as it becomes BOTH overbought and profitable. I'll update as I buy or sell.

As always, this idea is edu-tainment, not investment advice. If you trade with my ideas, good luck to you, but it's your responsibility not mine in terms of how that turns out for you. Never put money into the market that you can't afford to lose if things go badly sideways.

18 juil.

Note

In case the chart wasn't clear about this, the initial lot was purchased at 482.28 yesterday and another was added just before the close today at 479.45.

19 juil.

Note

Still oversold, so I added again at the close at 475.24

24 juil.

Note

Added 1 lot at the close @ 463.39

25 juil.

Note

Added 1 lot at the close @ 458.25

5 août

Note

Oversold again. Added another lot @ 435.74 at the close.

13 août

Note

Closed the 2 most recently purchased lots at the close today at 462.58 as QQQ is now short-term overbought and they are both profitable. They gained 0.94% and 6.2% respectively. I still have 4 open/losing lots.

15 août

Note

Still overbought so I closed the 463.69 lot at the close for 474.45. 2.4% gain. 3 lots left open.

19 août

Note

Sold the 2 of the remaining 3 lots that were profitable at the close today since QQQ is still overbought for 481.27. That's a gain on the Jul 19th lot of 1.3% and the July 18th lot of 0.38%. Original lot is the only remaining lot.

21 août

Trade fermée manuellement

Closed the final lot today at 482.58 for a gain on this lot of .07%. I know that's a paltry gain, but if it goes down 1% tomorrow it's like making an extra 1%. It could go up, obviously, but it's been overbought for several days now and overdue for a breather. Average gain for the 6 lots was 1.9% each, but given the selloff we had right after opening the initial position, I'm happy to be profitable at this point.

6 sept.

Transaction en cours

Added another lot at 447.50 after hours (oversold again)

12 sept.

Trade fermée manuellement

Sold the most recent lot (position is now fully closed) at the close today for 473.28
That's a +5.8% gain in 3 trading days (4 if you count the day I bought it after the close).
No lots are remaining.

Since the original post date on July 17, the QQQ is down 1.76%.

Here are my actual trades shown in the time-stamped updates above in that time frame:
+0.9%, +6.2%, +2.4%, +1.3%, +0.4%, +0.1% and 5.8%
You may say those returns aren't sexy, but they are profitable. And I don't know about you, but I find profits INCREDIBLY sexy. Have a good evening everyone!

17 sept.

Note

Summary (for my accounting purposes)

7 wins 0 losses

individual trade returns - see above
Avg gain per lot = 2.44%
Avg holding period = 14.7 trading days
Per lot per day annualized return = +41.8%