QQQ --- AI Tech Bubble Keeps Growing

15 juil.

Right now, not much seems to be stopping the bubble in Tech. You can see we broke above resistance on June 11th and have not looked back. I was expecting some form of test of support, like back in July 2020, but instead any pullback has been bought up. Volume is low and that means that everyone is long to go along for the ride. If we get a run up like back in August 2020, we could top out at the $550 range.

We are in the region of extra hard to predict what will happen next. Without a clear reason to sell, this can keep going. I would expect to see some form of profit taking that could make for a bigger pullback, but so far nothing. I think the saying "The Market Can Remain Irrational Longer Than You Can Remain Solvent" comes to mind.

I am curious if we are in for a case of "buy the rumor, sell the news" when it comes to interest rate cuts. Maybe this will keep going up until we actually get a rate cut.

1D

16 juil.

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16 juil.

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18 juil.

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Ouch. China trade fears.

19 juil.

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A little perspective.

19 juil.

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Rough week.

20 juil.

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I fine tuned my channels and trend lines. Friday's sell off brought price down to test support. My previous model was off ever so slightly. Expect next week to help determine if the rally is going to sell back down in to the channel or that we will find support and push for new ATH in the coming weeks.

20 juil.

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close up

22 juil.

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Bounce off of support today. Let's see if it holds.

25 juil.

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Big loss of support today with a major sell off. We have now fallen back inside the channel that I have been tracking. If we don't see a bounce tomorrow, more selling could be in store. Typically the rule is “selling begets selling” and with such a big drop today we could see more weakness. However, I thing the center line (dotted) of the black channel will give QQQ support. It has been a key level. Obviously, this could be "buy the dip" but I am waiting to see some more clear indications, which would be a retest of the now resistance from the channel. More big tech earnings this week, and if they come in like Tesla and Google, then don't be surprised if we pull back to the green trend line. We pull back that far, then that would be a good place to buy back in. Until then, good luck.

27 juil.

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small bounce off the black midline of the channel. I nibbled at a few tech stocks yesterday in the hopes of some kind of bounce next week. Usually, we see some kind of relief rally after this much selling.