FIB THESIS for SPX

24 janv. 2023

Market Internals suggest we are in balance at this point. I believe that since nasdaq launched, a new base for a new longer term channel was caught the SPX. The purple line is the overall trend line the market has followed (again, IMO) since 1997. But that trend line can't be used forever. And I think we're about to see covering on low volume lead to a blow off head to complete this hypothetical channel, before we fail back to the long term trend in the next few years. Why? Buybacks, splits, and EPS manipulation, Bitcoin and other excessive and unfounded bullishness. We're all just in a casino, value is currently not definable. But the long term point of control, based on volume, is down around 2100. I'd guess this next bubble will help hold us up long enough so that when we do fall, the point of control and the 23% fib (typical fallback level after channel top met) will catch the waterfall and build further volume support way out in 2024-5 or so. I'm not bias, I think that's stupid nuts, I'm just using normal chart evaluation and actual volume data to assess targets. When enough of these match up, I think it has value. I think the horizontal fib people should be basing their extensions off of that high volume spike at 2050.

As of this posting, I think the fibs I'm thrown on here are being validated quite well. But it's just a guess. This next year could be totally bonkers. I guess we'll all have the shorts and hedges to thank for it.