The SPX is exhibiting exceedingly rare coincident indicators, occurring only twice in US stock market history going back to the 1920s, including:
A Dow Theory sell signal.
A Hindenburg Omen.
A log-periodic, super-exponential blowoff that began in 2012 and resolved in 2014.
A Coppock Guide/Curve "Killer Wave" (see Jim Stack of Investech).
Weekly and monthly Tom DeMark (TD) sell signals.
A larger-degree, cyclical Elliott Wave (projection) from the 2009 low.
Record margin debt as a share of GDP.
A record high for non-financial corporate debt as a share of GDP.
A record high for equity market capitalization as a share of GDP, i.e., the "Buffett Indicator".
A monthly MACD cross.
A monthly RSI cross down below 70.
The index reaching 20% or more above the long-term cyclical moving average.
Oh, yes. When were the two previous times all of these indicators coincided as is occurring today . . . ?
1929 and 2007.
But it's "different this time" with QEternity, ZIRP, NIRP, "forward giddiness", and central banks the world over willing, able, and prepared to panic at a moment's notice and expand trillions of dollars' worth of fiat digital debt-money credits for bank reserves to prop up equity indices to avoid a bear market and the risk of a debt-deflationary implosion larger than 2008-10.
Financial asset bubbles are now a de facto monetary policy tool and the equity market a kind of rentier-socialist public utility that cannot be permitted to lose more than 7-10% of its value that persists, let alone be allowed to crash 35-50%+.
It is often said that they don't ring a bell at a market top. Well, to my ears, the sound of the death-knell tolling of the bull market is deafening.
Les informations et les publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou des recommandations en matière de finance, d'investissement, de trading ou d'autres types de conseils fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.