Pain in SPY may continue into FOMC
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I think we experience a pullback to somewhere between 2115 and 2091 leading up to the FOMC.
Bearish signs:
1. Falling below 50 EMA
2. Volume has been too week at these prices to move the Point of Control.
3. Sellers outnumber buyers in this low volume
4. Chaikin Money Flow floating down and now crossing 0
Bullish signs:
1. A/D still strong (could be top?)
2. Above 200 EMA
What to look for:
- If SPY can break above it's 50 EMA, that's bullish
- CMF below 0 is bearish, above 0 is bullish.
- The blue CMF (20 day) provides a good early warning of things to come but is sensitive to strong moves. If the blue hovers around 0, it means the bears have failed to make a significant push. But if it turns further negative, it's a signal for a short.
- The yellow CMD (60 day) provides a good sense of overall trend. If this falls below 0 it signals the start of a major downtrend.
Bearish signs:
1. Falling below 50 EMA
2. Volume has been too week at these prices to move the Point of Control.
3. Sellers outnumber buyers in this low volume
4. Chaikin Money Flow floating down and now crossing 0
Bullish signs:
1. A/D still strong (could be top?)
2. Above 200 EMA
What to look for:
- If SPY can break above it's 50 EMA, that's bullish
- CMF below 0 is bearish, above 0 is bullish.
- The blue CMF (20 day) provides a good early warning of things to come but is sensitive to strong moves. If the blue hovers around 0, it means the bears have failed to make a significant push. But if it turns further negative, it's a signal for a short.
- The yellow CMD (60 day) provides a good sense of overall trend. If this falls below 0 it signals the start of a major downtrend.
Note
Yikes. What a week. The flush continues but FOMC could provide a temporary injection into the market. If we dip below 210 before FOMC, I will go deep into the longs
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