Looking for a pullback this week..
My main target is 444-445.
Secondary target is 439-441
There's a few indicators that I use that are telling me of a pullback coming; I'll list them off here.
1. Biggest indicator is the VIX 4hour RSI. The last 3 times the 4hour RSI on the Vix hit 23 were
11/9/2020
3/30/2022
10/28/2022
If you look at the price action of Spy days after the vix hit those lows you'll notice a 2% minimum drop.
So that's why I think 439 gap close might be on the table if spy loses 444.
2. The 3hour Money flow on Spy and QQQ are still Overbought. Usually there's a 1½% pullback once we get to 3-4 hour Overbought areas.
I know you're thinking "We were Overbought all last week and it didn't come down".
My reply to that is, We had a bullish pattern with economic news that acted as rocket fuel to that pattern.
This week, there's no economic news to maintain the momentum + the pattern was completed at 452-453.
3. Qqq 4hour chart and RSI
Here you can see the QQQ hit its RSI resistance
And on the candle chart it fell out of its Rising wedge Friday.
Target is 372.. like spy 444 , bulls need 372 to hold
4. NYSE and Dow Jones
NYSE finished at Resistance here
4hour CCI over bought.
Dow jones at resistance looking for a pullback to 34,300-34-500 minimum
4hour chart and RSI
5. IXIC (Nasdaq)
I know I went over QQQ but IXIC for me is a better compass navigating tech. QQQ only covers top 100 tech while IXIC covers the entirety of tech. Also they are slightly off on alignments similar to SPX and Spy which could mess your entry up if you are a day trader. A prime example is, QQQ will close their gap at let's say 380.00 while the IXIC has 30 more Points to go; This push of the IXIC will to close their gap would cause QQQ to pop to 381.00; pretty crappy if you're short 0dte.
IXIC 1hour chart
Looking for a 200point pullback or 1½% drop. That aligns with 372 QQQ
All in all this could be a pullback for a cup and handle as long as 444 spy and 372 QQQ holds.
Es 3hour chart.
Money flow oversold here
Candle finished on wedge support
Rsi finished on support.
There's a chance we could gap up on ES and play green to get out of oversold, if the Green holds until market opens fade it! Rising here on ES and RTY (IWM).. the dump is coming!
I'll update this some more tomorrow
My main target is 444-445.
Secondary target is 439-441
There's a few indicators that I use that are telling me of a pullback coming; I'll list them off here.
1. Biggest indicator is the VIX 4hour RSI. The last 3 times the 4hour RSI on the Vix hit 23 were
11/9/2020
3/30/2022
10/28/2022
If you look at the price action of Spy days after the vix hit those lows you'll notice a 2% minimum drop.
So that's why I think 439 gap close might be on the table if spy loses 444.
2. The 3hour Money flow on Spy and QQQ are still Overbought. Usually there's a 1½% pullback once we get to 3-4 hour Overbought areas.
I know you're thinking "We were Overbought all last week and it didn't come down".
My reply to that is, We had a bullish pattern with economic news that acted as rocket fuel to that pattern.
This week, there's no economic news to maintain the momentum + the pattern was completed at 452-453.
3. Qqq 4hour chart and RSI
Here you can see the QQQ hit its RSI resistance
And on the candle chart it fell out of its Rising wedge Friday.
Target is 372.. like spy 444 , bulls need 372 to hold
4. NYSE and Dow Jones
NYSE finished at Resistance here
4hour CCI over bought.
Dow jones at resistance looking for a pullback to 34,300-34-500 minimum
4hour chart and RSI
5. IXIC (Nasdaq)
I know I went over QQQ but IXIC for me is a better compass navigating tech. QQQ only covers top 100 tech while IXIC covers the entirety of tech. Also they are slightly off on alignments similar to SPX and Spy which could mess your entry up if you are a day trader. A prime example is, QQQ will close their gap at let's say 380.00 while the IXIC has 30 more Points to go; This push of the IXIC will to close their gap would cause QQQ to pop to 381.00; pretty crappy if you're short 0dte.
IXIC 1hour chart
Looking for a 200point pullback or 1½% drop. That aligns with 372 QQQ
All in all this could be a pullback for a cup and handle as long as 444 spy and 372 QQQ holds.
Es 3hour chart.
Money flow oversold here
Candle finished on wedge support
Rsi finished on support.
There's a chance we could gap up on ES and play green to get out of oversold, if the Green holds until market opens fade it! Rising here on ES and RTY (IWM).. the dump is coming!
I'll update this some more tomorrow
Commentaire:
XLK (Tech sector)
4hour RSI lower high at resistance.
Candles stopped at 177 gap resistance similar to spy 453.50 gap resistance. Looking for a pullback to trendline support . If we break trendline, 170 is next .
4hour money flow and CCI Overbought
4hour RSI lower high at resistance.
Candles stopped at 177 gap resistance similar to spy 453.50 gap resistance. Looking for a pullback to trendline support . If we break trendline, 170 is next .
4hour money flow and CCI Overbought
Commentaire:
Notice how the futures just dropped as soon as 10yr opened 15min Ago
Spy
Support 447 (1hour 200sma)
Resistance 450.00, 451.50
Qqq
Support - 375.20
Resistance - 377, 379
Iwm - Gapping below 50sma
Gap close at 188.50
Spy
Support 447 (1hour 200sma)
Resistance 450.00, 451.50
Qqq
Support - 375.20
Resistance - 377, 379
Iwm - Gapping below 50sma
Gap close at 188.50
Commentaire:
Closing out my IWM shorts 190p at the open.
Qqq 375.00 area is the one to watch.. Market will only go as low as tech.. Also Aapl, the leading decliner Has Support between 186.70- 187.30 if they bounce that then I doubt QQQ will break 375 today.
And if that's the case look for a long drawn out choppy short to the weekly targets of
Spy -444
QQQ-372
Qqq 375.00 area is the one to watch.. Market will only go as low as tech.. Also Aapl, the leading decliner Has Support between 186.70- 187.30 if they bounce that then I doubt QQQ will break 375 today.
And if that's the case look for a long drawn out choppy short to the weekly targets of
Spy -444
QQQ-372
Commentaire:
Energy and Healthcare balancing dow... tech weighing = Choppy Spy ...
Commentaire:
Tsla, Msft, meta , plunge protection team... Becareful of the chop if you're 0dte
Commentaire:
Dow breaking below the 50sma. Energy stocks will fade
Commentaire:
Ridiculous price action here ..
Closed IWM puts out for 70%.
Got stopped out on a Tsla put for 20%
Shorted Xom for 40%..
I'm done for the day
This price action is ugly.. Futures are going oversold on the Money flow so I don't know if they'll dip it lower today... I'll be back on EOD
Closed IWM puts out for 70%.
Got stopped out on a Tsla put for 20%
Shorted Xom for 40%..
I'm done for the day
This price action is ugly.. Futures are going oversold on the Money flow so I don't know if they'll dip it lower today... I'll be back on EOD
Commentaire:
RTY (Iwm futures) moneyflow oversold. Wouldn't be surprised if they pulled a reverse uno card and pop cylicals and dump tech.
I'm swinging
9/12
376p
Qqq
Stop loss 380.50
I'm swinging
9/12
376p
Qqq
Stop loss 380.50
Commentaire:
If we by some weird way gap outside this box on Qqq we're probably heading for a gap clos of 282.75 this week
Commentaire:
Correction 382.75
Commentaire:
10 yr.. Flagged up.. over 4.275 and we go for gap close
Commentaire:
Bearish Grave stone doji candle on XLE close.
Bearish Shooting star candle on Xom..
Let's ee the follow through tomorrow
Bearish Shooting star candle on Xom..
Let's ee the follow through tomorrow
Commentaire:
Look at the 2-3 hour money flow on YM1 and RTY futures , really oversold here.careful Shorting any cylicals today.
NQ 2hour money flow is Overbought, so I expect a pullback there Not all tech will drop, some will play for the plunge protection team so be picky.
NQ 2hour money flow is Overbought, so I expect a pullback there Not all tech will drop, some will play for the plunge protection team so be picky.
Commentaire:
Placing a stop at 378 on QQQ short..
Target is still 375.00- 376.00
Spy 1hour chart..
With the exception of that gap up I circled , spy has been playing this channel since friday..
The opening support of this channel is 448..
They could play this channel again today, so be prepared for another choppy twerk session unless support or resistance of this channel breaks 😁
Target is still 375.00- 376.00
Spy 1hour chart..
With the exception of that gap up I circled , spy has been playing this channel since friday..
The opening support of this channel is 448..
They could play this channel again today, so be prepared for another choppy twerk session unless support or resistance of this channel breaks 😁
Commentaire:
Took profits on QQQ..
I'll wait for a break below 375.00 to go short again.. I'm on the sideline until ISM in 30min
I'll wait for a break below 375.00 to go short again.. I'm on the sideline until ISM in 30min
Commentaire:
Spy 1hour chart.. descending triangle playing out.
Sitting on 1hour 50sma
1hour 200sma next support
Spy 1hour chart.. descending triangle playing out.
Sitting on 1hour 50sma
1hour 200sma next support
Commentaire:
Spy hit its daily 50sma...
Tsla and aapl both testing trendline support from August... I don't like the short here any more until Spy breaks and close back below 50sma ..
Dow holding that 34,500 support...
NYA bounce off 15,900 support..
Tighten your stops if your short...
I wouldn't jump the gun on long
Tsla and aapl both testing trendline support from August... I don't like the short here any more until Spy breaks and close back below 50sma ..
Dow holding that 34,500 support...
NYA bounce off 15,900 support..
Tighten your stops if your short...
I wouldn't jump the gun on long
Commentaire:
Also QQQ playing around that 375 support... 375 is tough, buy if it breaks it 372 next
Commentaire:
Beige report comes out at 2 today...
Could move the markets... I'll be back on later
Could move the markets... I'll be back on later
Commentaire:
Last trade... I'm long aapl here at 184
192.5c
9/22
Stop loss
182.50
192.5c
9/22
Stop loss
182.50
Commentaire:
My bear target for IXIC or Nasdaq for the weeks was hit..
At 13,800...
This would be the low of the week until CPI... if we break below this area , things get nasty
At 13,800...
This would be the low of the week until CPI... if we break below this area , things get nasty
Commentaire:
372.50 QQQ next support
443.30 spy next support
Dow 34,200
Needs to close above these levels or
370 qqq next
440 spy next
Futures money flow are oversold but without some good news I doubt we pop..
Saudi news of cutting oil supply is bad for inflation which added to the mid day flush..
Vix broke above 50sma but hourly CCI is telling be to look for a pullback on Vix starting tomorrow..
443.30 spy next support
Dow 34,200
Needs to close above these levels or
370 qqq next
440 spy next
Futures money flow are oversold but without some good news I doubt we pop..
Saudi news of cutting oil supply is bad for inflation which added to the mid day flush..
Vix broke above 50sma but hourly CCI is telling be to look for a pullback on Vix starting tomorrow..
Commentaire:
Vix.. broadening wedge pattern, pushed right up to its daily 50ema today.. looking for a pullback here
Commentaire:
Stopped out of aapl..
Everything pretty much bottom earlier with the exception of Aapl..
15 min chart is showing a V shape recovery everywhere.. I don't believe in V shapes! I prefer double bottoms or inverted H&S so don't be surprised if we dip 1 more time before a rip. Yes I think a Rip is coming before or by friday.. technicals on NYA, DJI and futures are too Oversold
Everything pretty much bottom earlier with the exception of Aapl..
15 min chart is showing a V shape recovery everywhere.. I don't believe in V shapes! I prefer double bottoms or inverted H&S so don't be surprised if we dip 1 more time before a rip. Yes I think a Rip is coming before or by friday.. technicals on NYA, DJI and futures are too Oversold
Commentaire:
Like I said.. never trust a V shape recovery..
Either we bounce at 443-444 for a double bottom or we dump to 440 to for a head
Either we bounce at 443-444 for a double bottom or we dump to 440 to for a head
Commentaire:
Spy-If it breaks back over 447.00 , I like the long to 449.25
Other wise the range is 444- 446.50.
Other wise the range is 444- 446.50.
Commentaire:
XLK sector..
Even with aapl dump the 174 Area held here. If it can maintain that Support by EOW we should see one more rally on this rising wedge up to 179 gap close; After that I expect a nasty correction.
Even with aapl dump the 174 Area held here. If it can maintain that Support by EOW we should see one more rally on this rising wedge up to 179 gap close; After that I expect a nasty correction.
Commentaire:
Es 4hour chart
Spy 2 hour chart
Both are showing Ascending broadening wedge patterns here which are typically bearish.. es is on support now and spy will open at support above 444..
Nq daily chart
This is ugly .. Rejected again here at the top of a broadening wedge. I have to be honest, this looks bad here to upside is Fib resistance and trendline resistance. Let's just hypothetically say that Nq bounces at the open and we head back to resistance , the measured move would only allow QQQ to 376. Nq next support is at 15,145 which would put the QQQ at 370 today if we lose 372. So the upside here is 376 until CPI or aapl event
Vix
Close on support and bounce this morning.
50ema resistance still.. CCI is telling me that this thing should top out by EOD today until Cpi next week.
Let's see what happens..
Spy 2 hour chart
Both are showing Ascending broadening wedge patterns here which are typically bearish.. es is on support now and spy will open at support above 444..
Nq daily chart
This is ugly .. Rejected again here at the top of a broadening wedge. I have to be honest, this looks bad here to upside is Fib resistance and trendline resistance. Let's just hypothetically say that Nq bounces at the open and we head back to resistance , the measured move would only allow QQQ to 376. Nq next support is at 15,145 which would put the QQQ at 370 today if we lose 372. So the upside here is 376 until CPI or aapl event
Vix
Close on support and bounce this morning.
50ema resistance still.. CCI is telling me that this thing should top out by EOD today until Cpi next week.
Let's see what happens..
Commentaire:
Qqq, A loss of 372 brings us to 369-370..
Commentaire:
I like the rebound for scalp cslls at the open.. May flush later but we're gapping down too oversold .
443.30 spy support,
Below 442.75 and I like 441 puts, otherwise. No short.
443.30 spy support,
Below 442.75 and I like 441 puts, otherwise. No short.
Commentaire:
Vix stalled at its 1-2 hour 200sma
Qqq bounced off trendline at 369 but 1hour 200sma resistance at 371. Over that and we test 372.50
Too oversold still.. wouldn't short anything
Qqq bounced off trendline at 369 but 1hour 200sma resistance at 371. Over that and we test 372.50
Too oversold still.. wouldn't short anything
Commentaire:
Hopped in MSFt at 330 .. didn't put it out their cause of the risk but man was I pissed watching Meta and amzn recover faster . Covered for 30%.. I'll be back on later
Commentaire:
NYA and IWM look terrible.. probably why they're propping up a few tech for plunge protection.. Stay nimble today ,
Commentaire:
NQ daily chart. Bounced off 15145 , will probably kick start its fraudulent 3day rally back up to 15,500 tomorrow into aapl event.
If we break 15145 here then that means QQQ will break 369 and the next stop below that is 365..
The reason I think this rally is a fraud is because Of XLK sector.
It gapped down below its Rising wedge so that means the correction is already started. The next maneuver is usually a retest of that Wedge before the real dump which is what I expect to happen like so
Dow jones 4hour chart
Bounced off its uptrend support and horizontal support today.. will probably bounce back up to 34,900 in the next 2days.
NYA or NYSE
This is my leading indicator for the Big crash, and those who follow me know I don't use the crash word loosely!
Nearing support of this Rising here , Number one sign of weakness in a rising wedge is when the Stock can no long reach resistance on the bounce off support...
Like the Dow, I expect a bounce next two days up into 16040 and then we'll see what happens.
Support 34,200
If we break 15145 here then that means QQQ will break 369 and the next stop below that is 365..
The reason I think this rally is a fraud is because Of XLK sector.
It gapped down below its Rising wedge so that means the correction is already started. The next maneuver is usually a retest of that Wedge before the real dump which is what I expect to happen like so
Dow jones 4hour chart
Bounced off its uptrend support and horizontal support today.. will probably bounce back up to 34,900 in the next 2days.
NYA or NYSE
This is my leading indicator for the Big crash, and those who follow me know I don't use the crash word loosely!
Nearing support of this Rising here , Number one sign of weakness in a rising wedge is when the Stock can no long reach resistance on the bounce off support...
Like the Dow, I expect a bounce next two days up into 16040 and then we'll see what happens.
Support 34,200
Commentaire:
Vix 2hour chart..
Wedge pattern formed on last 3 day pump.. like I always say, anything that pumps really fast normally forms a wedge..
Looking for 14.00 gap close here minimum
Wedge pattern formed on last 3 day pump.. like I always say, anything that pumps really fast normally forms a wedge..
Looking for 14.00 gap close here minimum
Commentaire:
Spy 1hour chart..
That gap resistance at 448.40 would be the long target here... 449.25 would be a bonus
That gap resistance at 448.40 would be the long target here... 449.25 would be a bonus
Commentaire:
Games...
Trade I'm looking to take is Aapl calls above 177.00..
180C.
9/15
176 stop loss
Despite this premarket Red I'm still leaning towards longs here..
Trade I'm looking to take is Aapl calls above 177.00..
180C.
9/15
176 stop loss
Despite this premarket Red I'm still leaning towards longs here..
Commentaire:
Vix 1hour chart..
Pushed up to the resistance this morning and formed a right shoulder.
Yesterday's popped was the head..
We break below 14.17 and we should flush good today
Pushed up to the resistance this morning and formed a right shoulder.
Yesterday's popped was the head..
We break below 14.17 and we should flush good today
Commentaire:
5min 200sma on QQQ.. over that and gap close 374.80
Commentaire:
Covered on aapl... they could push things up some more today on some Friday melt up BS but ..
Look at Boeing and banks...cylicals still getting crush.. tech carrying
Look at Boeing and banks...cylicals still getting crush.. tech carrying
Commentaire:
50sma on spy is the resistance for today along with minor trendline resistance...
should break back above it, I just don't know if it'll be today or early next week.. over 50sma and we could see 448 but I'd run a tight stop above 446 if your short date
should break back above it, I just don't know if it'll be today or early next week.. over 50sma and we could see 448 but I'd run a tight stop above 446 if your short date
Commentaire:
Vix H&S at play,
1st gap close, let's see if they back test the neck line before going for last gap..
Usually Fridays the as the day progresses the vix crush gets even worse this is why I'm not discounting a late day melt. Especially if the Dow and cylicals rebound
I'll be back on later..
1st gap close, let's see if they back test the neck line before going for last gap..
Usually Fridays the as the day progresses the vix crush gets even worse this is why I'm not discounting a late day melt. Especially if the Dow and cylicals rebound
I'll be back on later..
Commentaire:
Spy 15 min.. respect the blue line
😉
Qqq.. don't like anymore tech calls unless we breakover 376.. 375 resistance is tough. 374.80 gap close was achieved
😉
Qqq.. don't like anymore tech calls unless we breakover 376.. 375 resistance is tough. 374.80 gap close was achieved
Commentaire:
Vix Retested that neckline like I thought..
Looking into next week , I think we still flush on the vix into Tuesday like so.
I'm not swinging a thing , although I am leaning neutral/Bullish in to CPI.. So many events to make money off of next week , no need for me to swing
Looking into next week , I think we still flush on the vix into Tuesday like so.
I'm not swinging a thing , although I am leaning neutral/Bullish in to CPI.. So many events to make money off of next week , no need for me to swing
Commentaire:
I'll do a new post Sunday . ✌ for the weekend
Commentaire:
Look at NYA,DOW Jones , and XLF.
All closed at resistance with 50sma right behind them....