SPY/SPX: Week of June 24

22 juin

My thoughts on SPY/SPX for next week.

Overall, looking like its going to be a pullback week!

Safe trades as always and leave your questions below!

24 juin

Note

Wasn't expecting this to pan out exactly as hypothesized but so far so good:


We did gap fill and as theorized, we did reject off the gap resistance.
From here, if we can't reclaim, then the short thesis remains intact.
If we reclaim then we will have to adopt a bullish thesis.
So far we have rejected and short thesis remains the go to thesis but I will update if this is invalidated.

Best of luck to all!

25 juin

Note

The PA is .. interesting.
Tech isn't really all that bearish. We have high probs on NQ, and META has been a tank this week.
SPY is not wanting to participate and its really not the most eventful thing to be getting in on.

I am not sure it goes lower or higher. Tech for sure will go higher but with SPY really going out of its way to resist getting bought up, I'm not really sure where it goes from here.

My suggestion is to avoid it until its more clear. Else continue to dip buy, but only when there is an actual dip like we saw today.

Tech is free for all. QQQ, NVDA, META, NFLX, its all bullish.

Best of luck!

27 juin

Note

Hey guys,

SO I understand what's going on.
The short positioning this week has been absolutely insane and relentless. We have maintained a ratio of actively open short positions of over 4 all week! I have been collecting this data YTD and this is the longest I have ever seen this type of positioning open for!
As a result of the pressure, the market is working itself out of overboughtness by simply stagnanting.
The bias is up. We should continue up sooner than later, and I do expect once it finally happens, it should be aggressive with a bit of squeezing going on.
Stay bullish here and be careful.
My general advice is to wait for the break, otherwise you may be decayed to death with the chop. Hopefully it will come sooner than later!

Safe trades!

28 juin

Note

And we broke!
The violent upward movement you are seeing today is the result of millions being short and covering.

RIP.