S&P 500 at Key Resistances

6 juil. 2020

This is a pure price action post and so it is a pretty simple idea (especially for me). Price action created a local high on the 19 of Feb 2020 and then another high on the 8 of June. The second high clearly marks the termination of an impulsive move. One way to understand how price action can act after an impulsive move to to to a fib retracement. We see the price action did a perfect retest of the 0.236 retracement level before returning to the ray set by points 1 and 2. I currently have the ray point to the opens of red candles prior to the gap down. Tinker with your trend line as you see fit.

We still may see a week of chopping sideways as the local high gets established. If the local high at 3 is lower than two then that is three lower highs against this trendline and reaching lower fib-retracements is on the table. And that is the macro bullish senario. The macro bearish senario is we set a lower low than March 23rd

When I look over at the CDF ticker SPXUSD I see some adtionally support becoming resistance that I like to see as a potential sign of reversal. I generally like finding price action at double resistance as you can see, with the rising blue trendling flipping from support to resistance on this third touch. It helps lend credence to the idea that the trend will continue set lower highs. On the other hand, for price action to overcome this resistance means I am not a little wrong, I am very wrong.


See the linked idea for a phenomenological time I did similar analysis on BTCUSD using a previous example on ETHUSD.