SPY: 3 Month Outlook
Mis à jour
So, I usually do this in a video. I tried. I failed. Microphone problems. Etc. etc. etc.
So I am just writing it out, because had I shared it when I originally intended, it probably would have been more helpful, since we bounced off of a key level recently.
Above is the 3 month high/low range, superimposed with the 6 month low range/thresholds.
You can see that we have removed target #1 for the 6 month low (420), which is very close to target #1 on the 3 month low (415).
The interesting part about this, which I have shared in my other idea, is that the 6 month bear threshold aligns with the 3 month bull threshold at around 431. This means that, 431 should be a really key area of resistance. Failing to break over that should lead us to those lower red boxes in the 404 to 399 range.
One little interesting tidbit though is there is a high prob target at 429:
Just right below the bull threshold on the 3 month and bear threshold on the 6 month. I am fine with this, because it doesn't require a break of the bull/bear condition to be hit. But what it tells us is there is a high chance we see a move back up to that 429 / 430 range.
And what it also tells us is that we may not see my 419 this week during market hours. We managed to wick down there premarket but we quickly reclaimed the bear threshold on the 3 month, which has been acting as pretty strong support.
Based on the setup, the move should theoretically be a move to 429 / 430 from here, since we technically lost and reclaimed the threshold in pre-market.
If we break out of the bull threshold/back over the bear threshold on the 6 month, the immediate target would be for a move back to the bull threshold on the 6 month at 451 (I would be pretty ticked if this happened though, honestly).
For the 3/6 month, I classify a break and hold as 3, full day closes above the threshold.
Either way, this will serve as our EOY roadmap. Which will forever be marked by the almighty pumpkins.
So if you come back to reference this in December, you will be reminded that Halloween is the best :P.
Those are my thoughts, safe trades everyone!
So I am just writing it out, because had I shared it when I originally intended, it probably would have been more helpful, since we bounced off of a key level recently.
Above is the 3 month high/low range, superimposed with the 6 month low range/thresholds.
You can see that we have removed target #1 for the 6 month low (420), which is very close to target #1 on the 3 month low (415).
The interesting part about this, which I have shared in my other idea, is that the 6 month bear threshold aligns with the 3 month bull threshold at around 431. This means that, 431 should be a really key area of resistance. Failing to break over that should lead us to those lower red boxes in the 404 to 399 range.
One little interesting tidbit though is there is a high prob target at 429:
Just right below the bull threshold on the 3 month and bear threshold on the 6 month. I am fine with this, because it doesn't require a break of the bull/bear condition to be hit. But what it tells us is there is a high chance we see a move back up to that 429 / 430 range.
And what it also tells us is that we may not see my 419 this week during market hours. We managed to wick down there premarket but we quickly reclaimed the bear threshold on the 3 month, which has been acting as pretty strong support.
Based on the setup, the move should theoretically be a move to 429 / 430 from here, since we technically lost and reclaimed the threshold in pre-market.
If we break out of the bull threshold/back over the bear threshold on the 6 month, the immediate target would be for a move back to the bull threshold on the 6 month at 451 (I would be pretty ticked if this happened though, honestly).
For the 3/6 month, I classify a break and hold as 3, full day closes above the threshold.
Either way, this will serve as our EOY roadmap. Which will forever be marked by the almighty pumpkins.
So if you come back to reference this in December, you will be reminded that Halloween is the best :P.
Those are my thoughts, safe trades everyone!
Commentaire
Update for the longer term outlook:Based on the chart and the projections, these are the 2 scenarios I could foresee playing out in the coming weeks/months.
Based on the chart alone, we should see a move initially to this white shaded box in the 424/423 range.
From there, bounce and whether that bounce is sustained back up is TBD.
We closed below the 6 month thresholds and are somewhat holding the 3 month as support. But the chart makes me inclined to believe the move to 424 is pretty imminent.
Commentaire
For a bit of a sneak peak into next week, you can reference this chart. You will see that we can expect to find resistance at 414 with ultimate resistance resting at 420.92 (3 month bear threshold).
These are the levels I would personally be watching.
Commentaire
And the upside targets are the winners. Closing this post off now.Will do one for the year on SPY next :-).
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