Spy

I think we're are headed lower.

Sectors are all rolling over.

Chip sector
SMH

Health care
XLV
Hanging onto to a rising wedge support but stuck under yellow resistance

XLY
Tsla /Amzn
Rejected at double top neckline
Possible bearflag forming

XLF
Financials/Banks
Rejected at doubletop neckline.. currently trading riding above support

XLK this is the biggest sector
Msft/Aapl
Rejected off resistance. Identical chart as qqq
Bearish engulfing at the end of an uptrend
SPY GOES NOWHERE WITHOUT THIS SECTOR

I know I said spy 440-444 last time and it should've gotten there but Cylicals and smallcaps didn't hold up their end of the bargain. Dow got smack down at 34k all last week.

NYA/Nyse
Got rejected on fib resistance

Spy 4hour RSI.. Rejected similar to candlesticks which gives me conformation on the trend reversal

Vix spike on Friday was wild
Possible major Inverted H&S showin that would take us back to 26-27

Qqq 30min chart
Friday we kick started a H&S
The right shoulder has now formed a wedge
I think once we tag 360-361 we will break out.

The drop to 360 is just forming of the Head , once we hit 360 I expect a technical bounce back to 366-368 to for right should to head back to 353 like so

You know it takes me about 15min to chart and do all of my homework , but it takes me almost an hour to do this post so I hope you'll are learning and earning. I try to help you'll navigate and motivate. I don't need a follow , like or donation. Empathy is why I do this, I was I your shoes once upon time trading, charting bumping my head but never giving up

... I'll up date this some more tomorrow

Commentaire:

Spy 30min chart.

Blue lines are supports
White line is resistance..

I don't think we'll break 427 first without 1% minimum pop . Why? Well the money flow on the Futures (Nq/ES) . The 2-3 hour are too oversold. When they get like that , any good news could cause a premarket pop which is a headache if you're swinging weeklies..

Two events I'm looking at is

1. Tech earnings Wed close and Thurs premarket

2. Powell speaks Thursday afternoon.

Similar to the setup on QQQ. I'm expecting a H&S

Spy could pop to retest 434-435 , but I'd look to fade it.

Why do I go into the sectors?
Picture the spy as a car, and the sectors are its parts.
Tech is the engine and Healthcare the transmission.

I've showed you sectors of all the magnificent 7 (Meta,aapl,msft,nvda,tsla,googl, etc.

In those charts you can see clearly see channel or resistance rejections with bearish reversal candles. That's TA 101 to not be long there.

Using XLK as an example

This sector represents Msft and Aapl.
Friday we had a trendline rejection with a bearish engulfing of 3 prior candles.
Now if we head back to support from here like XLK did last 2 times it tagged resistance then we would make a lower lower which in turn means aapl and msft will see prices lower than their Sept lows.
This analysis maintains until XLK breaks above resistance.

I could've just posted a spy chart without the sectors an explanation but I want you to see an understand how I come to my conclusions

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I'd much rather have a green opener than a red opener when looking to short ... Why? Because of entries 🎯..

Es never close that gap at 4350.. very high chance we close it by Wed.

Stick with tech if you're bearish. DOW looks to test 200sma/34k
AGAIN

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Shorting QQQ at the open.. 368.75 stop loss
10/23 365p..
If qqq pushes above 369, then 317 is at play and I'll wait to reshort again

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Games..
I'm holding short still.
Everything is at resistance pretty much right now
Dow and IWM already pulling back

This bounce here is the futures money flown being oversold IMO..

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Stopped out on my first short..

Didn't get back in QQQ at 370 but shorted INTC at bear flag retest...

Same situation
Dow at 34k resistance
Spy 437 resistance
Qqq 370 resistance..

This is just a technical bounce

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Only thing.. So dow broke above 33,900 today.
Currently sitting below 50ema..
I would like to see a close back below 33,900.

JNJ and GS both have earnings tomorrow and could push this either way

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Vix sitting right at its 200
Possible cup and handle.

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Qqq 15min .. price bull flagging here.. ..

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Until qqq can break back below 367
371-373 at play.. even if it pops back higher, unless we break the channel to the upside this would be just a technical bounce.

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I hate it when the price pulls back to my Stop-loss area..

Dirt bags...

Good news is, I'm up the same 25% on Intc that I losses on QQQ

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Spy 1hour chart.
Bullflag or double top?
I'm still not buying it until I see tech break out.

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Nq 30min chart.. like I said earlier, this pop was more for the futures being oversold. Double bottom completed here.. careful with longs here

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Swung Intc 10/20
And googl 10/27

Straight distribution here qqq 15min chart and RSI.

Notice the arrows where we rejection , each rejection brings a bigger drop.. next drop should happen tomorrow ✌

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Any thing that goes up fast forms a rising wedge .

Any thing that dumps fast forms a falling wedge

Vix 15min .. handle formed

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Qqq 15min chart and RSI

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Vix may be able to buy a beer after today.

Gorgeous falling wedge

Wouldn't surprise me if we closed all gaps from yesterday.

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Up 140% on INTC.
Stop market at 115%.

Googl 138 is annoying , but it's early

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Looking for a 15,000 test on NQ.. watch that Support there

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Stopped out on Googl.. 70%
Up 200% on INTC stop market at 175%

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364 on QQQ is tough..
Double top neckline..
Below that and we start the journey back to 355..

I expect more selling from the chips though, this type of volume usually comes with an encore

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On the sidelines for now.. Be back on later ..

Qqq bounced off 364 support
Dow bounced 200ma..

I don't expect a V shape recovery.. we should test low again today.. for now 1hour candle outside Bollingerband means oversold

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That was a vicious bounce.. this is why I trail my stops and move them up..

Qqq at 368 resistance

Iwm the outperformer is pushing up against its resistance also..

Market will only rebound more if QQQ breaks back bone 368.50

366-368 is chop zone

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NYSE/NYA
Pushed up to fib resistance

Dow bouncing between 200ma as support and 34,000 as resistance

IWM pushing up to 21ema resistance, reversed there last 3 touches.

Qqq fighting at 368..

Not really a trade to be made but if you're long , I would have a stop in place

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So ..
Health care, Financials and small caps have all broken out .
Including Dow and NYA.
If these moves were made last week when tech was bullish Spy would've easily tagged 440.

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Qqq 15min RSI.. back at our resistance divergence that foretold today's gap down..
Let's see what happens.. 371 is the pivot point

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Nq 1hour chart..
Mostly likely push up 15341 resistance..

2-3 hour money flow still overbought.. I don't think Tech comes out of Wed earnings green

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Imagine not having a stop loss on googl or INTC.. Always use a stop, whether you're down or up... Long term, that's the only way to stay green and I'm not talking about having a good week or month, I'm talking YTD (Year to date)

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Qqq 4hour chart..

Still 372-373 major trendline resistance here
Trendline support is around 360-361..

Do we tag 372-373 first before 360 or vice versa?.

We will tag that trendline though (360-361)
This is only negated if we close above 375

Be back on EOD

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Still bearish.. couple of fake break outs on
NYSE and Dow..
I'm on the sidelines here

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Vix 1hour chart.
Possible double bottom if we close above 18.00
Back tested last Fridays breakout

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IWM daily chart.. closed up at resistance here .. I'm watching this tomorrow.

Qqq daily.. double inside candle... this implies a major move is coming in the next 2 session.. no more chop non sense.
With the Overbought Money flow on NQ I'm leaning bearish.

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Qqq 1hour chart that gap support from Sept 20th at 364.50 is what qqq needs to break below and hold , then we can dip to 360.
You have so many moving averages between 365.00- 366.00 so consider that the gauntlet.

Here's IXIC(Nasdaq) which I find more reliable .. you see the price action at 13,362? Bounced on it to the penny Friday and yesterday. With that being said use that number as your reference for stop loss or opening new shorts

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I'm short googl here
136p
10/27
141.50 stop loss

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Cyclicals , Financials look terrible..
Dow flirting with closing gap at 33,600.
Sitting on top of 200sma and 21ema.

Qqq opened right at 1hour 200sma..
Below that and we see 364.

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Qqq 1hour RSI..
Remember I told you.. shoulders,tops,bottoms all require chop..
Dump should happen today or tomorrow

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Googl 1hour chart..
Rising wedge.. tight range with chop until support breaks..

Should break today or tomorrow

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Nasdaq about 30 points away from support.. needs to break this area for tech to flush .. IXIC

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Nasdaq 5min chart.. bear flagging. Should test yesterday lows

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Qqq bounced at 364 and Vix rejected at 20...

Same levels of the week.. we are in chop zone now un less qqq can break 364 and hold

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Covering on googl before the close

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Market has more dump to come but if those earning come in half decent we could have a decent dead cat.
Watch TSM tomorrow premarket

Peep the 2hour money flow on NQ.
If they pop it I'd be looking to fade it with Powell speech mid day tomorrow..
Catch you'll later ✌

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Not taking trades early today. I'll be on mid afternoon.
I really don't like the short early on. I think we pop hard.

Vix cci 1-2hour Overbought and it's sitting right below 20 resistance.

Money flow on futures 2-3 is telling me that either today or tomorrow market will pop 1%

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Qqq 15min chart..
Channel here.. we opened up at red arrow... Bad spot to open any position..

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Vix 1hour chart..
Cup and handle forming right under 20.00 resistance..
Careful here if you're long

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My gut tells me they're dragging this and trapping shorts...
IWM and DOW are the laggers here but they are intra day overshort

I'm still on the side lines ..

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Gotta have patience .. my fingers are were itching to short googl at 139 lol. The real direction will come after Powell

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IWM falling wedge Here at 170 support..
15min chart

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Qqq 15min RSI..
Sitting right at resistance here.
Price has formed a pennant..
Still undecided move

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Shorts trapped

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Bounced of 360.90 horizontal support.

365.50 resistance
Qqq

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Nq 1hour chart ..
Channel
Back at resistance

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This pop was about getting out of oversold and we are.
If qqq keeps chopping at 363-365 I'm leaning towards right shoulder forming Here

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Charts self explanatory.. Oct 4th lows incoming

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Dow jones Daily chart.

Another 3-5% drop coming

Nyse/Nya daily chart

Headed lower

For tomorrow
Wait for spy to break 425 to short for 422.50.
Over head resistance 427.50 and 429

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Weekly targets hit..
Spy 422.30 (200sma)
Qqq 355 support


Could see 420 and 353 but I don't like opening new shorts here ..

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XLC sector
(GOOGL,META,NFLX)..

Double top formed. 20sma and 50sma both on the chart highlighted in circle.. Next week will be blood for this sector.

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XLK 4hour chart h&S forming Here but now we need to bounce to form right shoulder

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Spy 30min..
Most likely we test 428-430 next week before heading lower.
We are oversold on the hour and minute time frames but nowhere near as bad as Sept. Today we tested the 200sma daily on Spy, very Rare to see it break through that first couple of touches with out a black swan event.

Enjoy your weekend ✌