Tron's Swan Song: The Ballad of Justin Sun

6 févr. 2021

TRXUSDT - 1D

Disclaimer: This post will be laden with brutal fundamental analysis as it relates to the burgeoning DeFi segment.

Tron. It's had a scammy reputation in the crypto sector for a while. Maxis hate every alt, ETHeads despise Tron for copying their whitepaper and protocol components. Fan & moonbois of other platforms use Tron as a bottom tier goal post in measuring their own performance. CryptoTwitter rags on Justin Sun for his fake followers and penchant for announcing announcements about an announcement. Yet, through it all, Tron is currently the best platform for DeFi exposure. Yes...I didn't mis-speak. Tron is currently the best platform for DeFi exposure.

I'm not saying Tron has the most volume, or the best tokens. ETH blows everything out of the water but it comes at a hefty price in the form of gas. If, as a segment, we're screaming "DeFi DeFi DeFi" then what's the response to "why does it cost me $380 to buy $30 worth of tokens?" You can't invite the world in to rape them with tx fees and ETH 2.0 is so far away you can't offer that as a solution with a straight face; nor does it solve the issue at hand.

Peruse DAPPradar and look at users on non-ETH platforms. Tron and BSC are the only chains with users and volume. BSC is cobbled together using custom metamask networks and broken BSC wallet links, so it doesn't have the usability that is needed for new entrants. The founders are also a mish-mash of globally organized, yet disconnected, entities that restrict certain activity on national IP levels. Additionally, it costs something like 1200 BNB to create a smart contract on BSC, which at present is ~$85,000.

It doesn't cost large sums of money to transact on the Tron network. You can stake tokens for smart contract energy and pay zero fees at all. You can create a token for 1024 Tron. You get free bandwidth to send tokens daily. Is the Tron platform a less than ideal decentralized system? Yes. Is the Tron network full of scams and potentially dangerous investments? Yes. Does Tron do anything other than copy Ethereum? No. None of that matters as right now, it offers the best overall environment to transact in DeFi. It has the lowest fees, best user experience, a plethora of DeFi abilities, and is lead by one of the most recognizable faces in crypto on the planet - who happens to be a major influencer in the Chinese market. Tron's market share is going to grow substantially while superior alternatives like Cardano, Cosmos, and Polkadot build out. Tron has a 6-10 month window to capture large portions of ETH's audience as well as new entrants, and that's exactly where this chart is leading us.

April 9, 2018 Tron was trading at $.033. May 1, 2018 Tron was trading at $.10. In three weeks it 3x'd. This chart is built off that rise and fall, and it is worth mentioning that a three week rise to $.10 is entirely possible - and even more likely as Ether gatekeeps new entrants to DeFi. Tron is currently printing a 19 month long inverse head and shoulders pattern, with the neckline right at 4c. The neckline has been pierced twice already by towering wicks that defied the upper BBand. These wicks were promptly rejected and that's what's brought us to this current, stabilized rally. I'm looking for a strong upward movement within the upper BBand & EMA7 as TRX approaches the neckline. I'll enter in around $.0415 with a target $.065.

The pink lines represent minor resistance while the orange lines present larger challenges. I wouldn't be surprised to see Tron trade within the orange lines for the largest period of time in its rise back to 10c. I'll re-enter upon confirmation of $.077 and smooth sail to $.091. Depending upon volume and momentum, I'll either bail there after or ride to 10c. Keep in mind Tron's previous ATH was $.25 and that was spurred by a large influx of Redditors and Sun just bought the top of GME and AMC to advertise to Redditors again.

The mashup of fundamental and technical analysis in this post is to provide a better view of what factors will drive this price up. Tron is going to shoot up as people offboard ETH and new crypto entrants onboard DeFi. That action, as well as general market movements, will have Tron super-bullish in the Year of the Ox. And I say all of this as someone who has typically been critical of Tron whilst supportive of its competitors.

This is not investment advice and trading cryptocurrency is high risk.

8 févr. 2021

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Nice measured move upto the neckline. With how bullish the past 48 hours have been, I'm expecting a massive, thick candle to blow through the neckline soon.

8 févr. 2021

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Lift off

9 févr. 2021

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Looks like we'll be challenging 5c sooner than later.

12 févr. 2021

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ronpaul.gif *you only had to listen*