Abnormal RR in TSLA
Mis à jour
Fundamentals:
TSLA is reporting after close. It gapped down 10 days ago because of bad numbers, which looks like was a surprise. Although, numbers were almost on target, investors/traders had higher expectations.
I believe medium to bad earnings are already priced in as we are in a value area for more than a week.TSLA is trading in a very tight range, making it more probable to see a huge move after earnings.
Very positive earnings could create a new temporary range from 235-250$.
Neutral or slightly positive earnings I believe wont affect the stock in terms of fundamentals, and price will move heavily relied to price action.
Very bad earnings could easily push price to areas near 200 for test if buyers exist there.
Overall, the lack of detail about Robotaxis from Elon makes the temporary sentiment more bearish.
Technicals: The weekly chart looks very bearish, it formed a double top reversal pattern, and MACD is now negative. Also Elder's force index is below zero but with light volume.
Also, Elder's impulse system is suggesting that longs are not desirable.
Now the Daily chart is in a pretty tight range and a breakout on either side is possible. The short-term (3-period force index) is slightly negative. And my custom MACD for short term fluctuations with the cross is suggesting that the momentum is to the upside. Of course, it could reverse any moment, especially with this kind of low volume tight range price actions.
My ideas, purely based on TA are:
1) If price breaks below 213 and the offer holds, a test of 200 is very probable. I will enter short with a stop loss around 214 and profit target around 205 and 203.
Remember, we need a test of 213 and a confirmation that it holds, do not get trapped in a false breakout.
2) If price breaks above 224.50, the chances of getting to 250 are high. IfTSLA gaps up on Thursday, I would still look for shorts as price action is bearish except if
FOMO kicks in and it starts to trend towards 250 with no real pullbacks. In this case I am long with profit targets around 240 and very tight stop loss.
TSLA is reporting after close. It gapped down 10 days ago because of bad numbers, which looks like was a surprise. Although, numbers were almost on target, investors/traders had higher expectations. I believe medium to bad earnings are already priced in as we are in a value area for more than a week.
TSLA is trading in a very tight range, making it more probable to see a huge move after earnings.Very positive earnings could create a new temporary range from 235-250$.
Neutral or slightly positive earnings I believe wont affect the stock in terms of fundamentals, and price will move heavily relied to price action.
Very bad earnings could easily push price to areas near 200 for test if buyers exist there.
Overall, the lack of detail about Robotaxis from Elon makes the temporary sentiment more bearish.
Technicals: The weekly chart looks very bearish, it formed a double top reversal pattern, and MACD is now negative. Also Elder's force index is below zero but with light volume.
Also, Elder's impulse system is suggesting that longs are not desirable.
Now the Daily chart is in a pretty tight range and a breakout on either side is possible. The short-term (3-period force index) is slightly negative. And my custom MACD for short term fluctuations with the cross is suggesting that the momentum is to the upside. Of course, it could reverse any moment, especially with this kind of low volume tight range price actions.
My ideas, purely based on TA are:
1) If price breaks below 213 and the offer holds, a test of 200 is very probable. I will enter short with a stop loss around 214 and profit target around 205 and 203.
Remember, we need a test of 213 and a confirmation that it holds, do not get trapped in a false breakout.
2) If price breaks above 224.50, the chances of getting to 250 are high. If
TSLA gaps up on Thursday, I would still look for shorts as price action is bearish except if FOMO kicks in and it starts to trend towards 250 with no real pullbacks. In this case I am long with profit targets around 240 and very tight stop loss.
Commentaire
Price broke below 213 before earnings report and is trying to test 214 which looks like it holdsTransaction en cours
Short 213.5 with Stop loss at 215.5 YLowTrade fermée: ordre d’arrêt atteint
Stopped out, earnings better than expected but revenue slightly worse.
As I said Thursday looking for shorts around 231, 232 (intraday price action) except if TSLA does parabolic up moves.
Commentaire
Intra day shorts off of the open, mostly scalps and looking for a swing long around 240 if it holdsCommentaire
As I said before good earnings brought the 235-251 range. It is more likely to break to the upside, but the when is unknown. A good approach for a swing trade would be to build a long position around that range.
For short term fluctuations fade the range extremes with tight stops. Take profit levels should be daily VWAPS because in order to reach the low extreme of the range we need more than 1 session and overnight price action.
Commentaire
Also being able visualize the price action, talking about intraday mostly, is very important. The I said about the parabolic movement was the reason I did not enter a short, but made money on the long side. I just exited at 251.
The stock is very strong and delivered very surprisingly good earnings. Do not fight the trend especially if its coupled with the sentiment
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