22 Oct 2019 - Brent Crude - Strong support since 2016 - Analysis

22 oct. 2019

CHART ANALYSIS

Looking at the daily chart of Brent Crude, we've seen the oil price bounce up on a strong rising trendline (black line) since 15 September 2015.

Every time the price bounces on this level, it rises to new all-time high prices.

Over the past year, Brent Crude has formed what’s known as a ‘Symmetrical Continuation pattern’ (shaded area). This is where price constricts in a pattern that resembles a triangle, until it eventually breaks out and continues to move up.

As we are near to the apex, we can expect a price breakout which could send the oil price flying its next ceiling level at $84.43 per barrel.

NEWS ANALYSIS

Last week Monday, President Trump said that he was going to apply heavy duties, boost tariffs on the country's steel to 50% from 25%, authorise sanctions on Turkey and cut off a $100 billion trade deal following Ankara's invasion of north-east Syria.

This is a major concern for analysts worldwide as these attacks could have a major impact on the economy of the oil-producing Kurdistan region in Iraq and on Brent Crude oil itself.

In today's article, I'll sum up what happened, how this could boost Brent Crude's price by 46% and how we can profit from the rise.

“I will totally destroy and obliterate the economy of Turkey”

This is what President Trump said based on what occurred last week.

Just to give you an update.

On Wednesday, Turkey launched a military operation against Kurdish fighters in northeast Syria.

This intrusion, according to President Erdogan was to remove the “terror corridor” along the Turkish border.

President Trump jumped right in and said;

“Turkey’s military offensive is endangering civilians and threatening peace, security and stability in the region.”

He then summed up the options on what he was prepared to do, where he told reporters at the white house:

"We have one of three choices: Send in thousands of troops and win militarily, hit Turkey very hard financially and with sanctions, or mediate a deal between Turkey and the Kurds!"

The aftermath?

On Tuesday, we saw a selloff in Turkish stocks and the Turkish Lira (TRY). However, we saw Brent Crude oil’s price remained steady above the critical $55 level.

One thing to know about commodities is that, when news hits that could interfere with supply, this is pretty much always a positive sign for the prices to rise.

Why?

Well it all boils down to the most important driving forces in economics - supply and demand.

It’s simple, when it comes to Brent Crude oil. When supply decreases, demand increases – which leads to a rise in the commodity’s price.

After the attack of the Saudi Oil infrastructure, we saw a surge in oil prices due to the disruption in the oil supply.

And now with the attack on the oil-producing Kurdistan region in Iraq, we can expect the same which will benefit pretty much all oil producers as higher oil prices will increase its revenue and profits.