US 10Y TREASURY: weight interest rate outlook

The US Treasury yield eased a bit during the previous week, after a sharp move to the upside, during the past two weeks. This comes as a result of market expectations that the Fed might skip further rate increases during the course of this year. Latest published inflation figures are indicating that the inflation is clearly on its down-path, but still there are some uncertainties which might impact its short reversal, especially due to geopolitical tensions.

The 10Y Treasury yields started the previous week around 4.8% level, but soon eased and reached level of 4.5%. Still, yields are finishing the week around 4.6% level. As markets are now increasing probability for Fed to pause its further rate hikes during both November`s and December`s meetings, it could be expected for US Treasury yields to further ease. They will start the week ahead around 4.6%, with a high probability for 4.5% to be tested one more time, but there is no indication on charts that 4.4% might be reached in the week ahead.