US500

7 févr. 2022

SP500 bounced off 1st fib and MAs. In triangular consolidation under resistance. Higher probability of downtrend continuation towards RLZ if breaks below 4444. Strong resistance above at 4600.

13 févr. 2022

Note

As expected the break below 0.38_fib opens the door to a retest of the RLZ closer to 4360.

We saw a the tentative break of trend line on feb 9 on very thin volumes and we most probably blocked a few additional buyers here on the major top structure. Chances are that we make a new low from here if we don't hold the 4300 and buyers don't come to the rescue in RLZ

13 févr. 2022

Note

Additionally momentum is again turning bear and we structured a h4 M top.

Really this is some place where you want to manage risk if not already done on the break of 4444 level.

13 févr. 2022

Note

One reason though not to panic is that we want to see a retest of RLZ to inverse the trend anyway such that even in a bullish scenario, the weakness we are witnessing now is actually normal after this technical rebound.
We'll then be able to structure a higher low and then break the trend and make higher highs on daily TF.

But we're not there yet and until we have new W in RLZ I would value cash more