Currency update Dollar / Swiss February 2024
Mis à jour
Morning traders,
Long time no see, sorry for that been busy recently with optimisation and fundraising for the portfolio. Since the start of the year I’m up 3%, but without further ado I wanted to sent out an update on one of my current picks in February.
Currently looking at
USDCHF LONGS,
Macro Fundamental reasoning:
🇺🇸 USD
since the commence of this year we’ve already seen some great narratives across the markets. One of the big talking points right now as we know is what will the FOMC be doing regarding their interest rates decisions.
Remember we had large pricing in of rate cuts beginning this year and to see that throughout the year, and we’ve also seen that being pushed back by the FOMC in their speech on the 18th of January. And just by the fact as we know data in the United States remains strong, and last week we’ve even seen data that the rate cuts are not in need right now.
Just to break it down for you,
When an economy is slowing down we are seeing growth slowdown, manufacturing, services and the labour market is getting worse with high unemployment and wages going down, inflation coming down etc etc. And all of these things are signs of a cooling economy, an economy that is not running hot.
Where as right now in the United States the economy is running hot, labour market is boiling, inflation is creeping up, services looking good and wages are rising. So there are several reasons for the economy to stay hot, and you HAVE to remember that the FX market that we are trading is mode out off real money flows.
Real money flows into the USD will remain.
🇨🇭 CHF
the SNB would probably flip from being
an FX seller to an FX buyer.
Technical reasoning:
Strong trending upwards market, following zone to zone, and now I’m waiting for a break out to the upside and enter on the retest.
Long time no see, sorry for that been busy recently with optimisation and fundraising for the portfolio. Since the start of the year I’m up 3%, but without further ado I wanted to sent out an update on one of my current picks in February.
Currently looking at
USDCHF LONGS,Macro Fundamental reasoning:
🇺🇸 USD
since the commence of this year we’ve already seen some great narratives across the markets. One of the big talking points right now as we know is what will the FOMC be doing regarding their interest rates decisions.
Remember we had large pricing in of rate cuts beginning this year and to see that throughout the year, and we’ve also seen that being pushed back by the FOMC in their speech on the 18th of January. And just by the fact as we know data in the United States remains strong, and last week we’ve even seen data that the rate cuts are not in need right now.
Just to break it down for you,
When an economy is slowing down we are seeing growth slowdown, manufacturing, services and the labour market is getting worse with high unemployment and wages going down, inflation coming down etc etc. And all of these things are signs of a cooling economy, an economy that is not running hot.
Where as right now in the United States the economy is running hot, labour market is boiling, inflation is creeping up, services looking good and wages are rising. So there are several reasons for the economy to stay hot, and you HAVE to remember that the FX market that we are trading is mode out off real money flows.
Real money flows into the USD will remain.
🇨🇭 CHF
the SNB would probably flip from being
an FX seller to an FX buyer.
Technical reasoning:
Strong trending upwards market, following zone to zone, and now I’m waiting for a break out to the upside and enter on the retest.
Transaction en cours
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