USDJPY: Volume and Volume Velocity and Waves and Justification

14 oct. 2016

Taking the focus off of the monthly support and economic points to support the dollar, I turn to the weekly to measure the volume and its rate of change to find support for continuing to hold on to this quarterly position in USDJPY. Of course, I am in and out of smaller positions in the same direction as the promising development of the economic-fundamental trend.

The mathematical formula I am using for measurement is actually an inferior algebraic formula, and what I need in tradingview is a Calculus based formula for more accuracy, but this is what I have used in the past, and until there is a better way to derive a better measurement of the imperfect volume and price of the charts, I will just used these tools.

Observations so far:
VOLUME BUYER CONVICTION STILL LACKING, and USD and JPY are almost head-to-head in strength with the JPY weakening a bit. Going forward, all we need to see is further bullish data to solidify our roots in holding the US Dollar against the Yen, and for reluctant bulls to unwind their short positions.

One thing I left out of the equation is the China factor. I will add to this segment later, as I am also keeping an eye on the UK situation.

So, for the USD/JPY, I am waiting for others to join in so that the party can get started on the bigger time frame now!

Then, this will further justify holding our long position in USD/JPY.

14 oct. 2016

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14 oct. 2016

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14 oct. 2016

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An 8 hour view of our USD/JPY weekly milestone, hopefully, this week if China doesn't surprise us and throw us another curve ball.

14 oct. 2016

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Here comes the big China disappointment (I hope not!) in 15 minutes:

14 oct. 2016

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China CPI y/y: 1.9% versus 1.3.% last time and greater than the 1.6% forecasted.
China PPI y/y: 0.1% versus the -0.8% last time and greater than the -0.4% forecasted.

That was a close one. This is one less economic data point to worry about. Now, we need to stay alert for tomorrow's US retail sales and PPI. I am going to not postmy economic-prediction for the retail sales because the PPI comes in at the same time tomorrow, and they are both equally hot catalysts.

The plan: Just sit on my hands and listen to the news for any risk-off sentiment and wait it out until tomorrow morning.

14 oct. 2016

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US Core Retail Sales m/m up 0.5% compared to -0.1% last time, and +0.1% above the forecast.
US PPI m/m up 0.3% compared to 0% last time, and better than the 0.2% forecast
The core PPI similar.

Awesome! ..now Yellen speaks today.

14 oct. 2016

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Almost there....a close above the flag will start the dollar long-term kick off:

14 oct. 2016

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I got a nice discounted price on the dip:

18 oct. 2016

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19 oct. 2016

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20 oct. 2016

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20 oct. 2016

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got them all mixed up: s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/z/ZV6k0qbb.png

20 oct. 2016

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Results:

20 oct. 2016

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20 oct. 2016

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20 oct. 2016

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UPDATE:

20 oct. 2016

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The volume is lining up well, it needs to keep going after the break to eat the shorts.

21 oct. 2016

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Sorry, I am a little late. It took me an hour or two to prepare this one:

21 oct. 2016

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VOLUME OBSERVATIONS:

28 oct. 2016

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