Weekly Prediction and Recap from last week
What Happened This Week:
The USD/JPY pair continued to trade within a bullish structure, reflecting overall dollar strength as expected. Despite facing a significant resistance level around 154.324, the pair did not convincingly break this level, indicating some selling pressure near this zone.
The primary driver for the dollar's strength this week was anticipation around U.S. economic data and the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, with an increasing probability of a rate hike. The market also digested political developments in the U.S. and their potential impact on dollar strength.
The Japanese yen weakened further, hitting new three-month lows as economic conditions in Japan remain soft, and the Bank of Japan has shown no significant shift toward tightening monetary policy.
Updated Weekly Analysis for Upcoming Week
Bullish Bias: USD/JPY remains in an uptrend on the weekly chart, supported by strong U.S. fundamentals and the prospect of a Fed rate hike.
Key Resistance Level: The 154.324 level remains the critical barrier. If the pair closes above this level, it would confirm a breakout, opening the way to targets around 157.383 and 158.313.
Consolidation Potential: If USD/JPY fails to break 154.324 again, we could see the pair consolidate between 152–154.324. A failure to break higher may also prompt a pullback toward the 150.000 level, which serves as strong weekly support.
Bullish Continuation Scenario: If USD/JPY breaks and closes above 154.324 on the daily chart, it would signal potential continuation to the next resistance zone at 157.383. This breakout would align with the broader weekly uptrend, indicating increased bullish momentum.
Bearish/Consolidation Scenario: If the price fails to break above 154.324, expect USD/JPY to potentially pull back toward daily support around 152.000 or lower. This would signal a period of consolidation, especially if the dollar faces any negative news or if U.S. yields stall.
Risk Management and Final Thoughts
Bullish Breakout Entry: Only consider a buy position if the price decisively closes above 154.324. Both daily and weekly close above this level would indicate stronger conviction among buyers.
Patience on Rejection: If USD/JPY fails to close above 154.324, be prepared for possible consolidation or a pullback to lower levels. Avoid entering prematurely if the breakout isn’t clear.
Stop-Loss Strategy: Given current volatility, it’s essential to keep SL tight near key support levels to protect against unexpected reversals, especially with major economic events upcoming.
The USD/JPY pair continued to trade within a bullish structure, reflecting overall dollar strength as expected. Despite facing a significant resistance level around 154.324, the pair did not convincingly break this level, indicating some selling pressure near this zone.
The primary driver for the dollar's strength this week was anticipation around U.S. economic data and the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, with an increasing probability of a rate hike. The market also digested political developments in the U.S. and their potential impact on dollar strength.
The Japanese yen weakened further, hitting new three-month lows as economic conditions in Japan remain soft, and the Bank of Japan has shown no significant shift toward tightening monetary policy.
On the daily chart, USD/JPY attempted multiple times to break above the 154.324 resistance level but was met with selling pressure, leading to consolidation near this level.
The anchored volume resistance at 154.324 continues to act as a strong barrier, signaling that while bulls have momentum, they need more volume to push the price higher.
Daily movements were influenced by U.S. dollar sentiment, with periods of volatility around news on U.S. interest rates and economic data.
Updated Weekly Analysis for Upcoming Week
Bullish Bias: USD/JPY remains in an uptrend on the weekly chart, supported by strong U.S. fundamentals and the prospect of a Fed rate hike.
Key Resistance Level: The 154.324 level remains the critical barrier. If the pair closes above this level, it would confirm a breakout, opening the way to targets around 157.383 and 158.313.
Consolidation Potential: If USD/JPY fails to break 154.324 again, we could see the pair consolidate between 152–154.324. A failure to break higher may also prompt a pullback toward the 150.000 level, which serves as strong weekly support.
Bullish Continuation Scenario: If USD/JPY breaks and closes above 154.324 on the daily chart, it would signal potential continuation to the next resistance zone at 157.383. This breakout would align with the broader weekly uptrend, indicating increased bullish momentum.
Bearish/Consolidation Scenario: If the price fails to break above 154.324, expect USD/JPY to potentially pull back toward daily support around 152.000 or lower. This would signal a period of consolidation, especially if the dollar faces any negative news or if U.S. yields stall.
Risk Management and Final Thoughts
Bullish Breakout Entry: Only consider a buy position if the price decisively closes above 154.324. Both daily and weekly close above this level would indicate stronger conviction among buyers.
Patience on Rejection: If USD/JPY fails to close above 154.324, be prepared for possible consolidation or a pullback to lower levels. Avoid entering prematurely if the breakout isn’t clear.
Stop-Loss Strategy: Given current volatility, it’s essential to keep SL tight near key support levels to protect against unexpected reversals, especially with major economic events upcoming.
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