Interesting P.A being seen on the USD/JPY...
Weekly gain/loss: - 209 pips
Weekly closing price: 112.68
A healthy bout of selling was seen in the market last week, erasing the prior week’s gains and breaking a two-week bullish phase. Providing that the bears can continue to stamp in their authority here, we see no reason why the weekly support area at 111.44-110.10 will not come into play.
Since mid-January, the daily candles have been consolidating between a daily resistance area coming in at 115.62-114.60 and a daily demand formed at 111.35-112.37 (positioned around the upper edge of the aforementioned weekly support area). A sustained move beyond the top edge of this range could lead to a rally north up to the daily resistance registered at 118.20. Conversely, a push below the lower edge of the daily consolidation may force the unit to challenge the nearby daily broken Quasimodo line at 110.58.
In the early hours of Friday’s London morning segment, the US dollar resumed its decline against the Japanese yen. After chomping through March’s opening base at 113.09, the 113.00 handle and eventually February’s opening line at 112.77, the pair concluded trade forming a H4 indecision candle at 112.68. Despite space being seen for the H4 candles to continue selling off down to around the 112.00 vicinity, we have to remain cognizant of the current daily demand pictured at 111.35-112.37.
Our suggestions: With the top edge of the daily demand coming in at 112.37, shorting from the underside of Feb’s opening line at 112.77 is not impossible, but difficult in regards to space. One has 40 pips of room to play with here. As such, we feel the better route to take today/this week is instead of looking to grab 30 or so pips from a short here, look to wait and see if the H4 candles can test 112 (green circle) for longs. There are a number of technical aspects that support a buy from this angle:
• The H4 88.6 retracement value seen at 112.11.
• The H4 Quasimodo support at 111.91.
• A H4 trendline support taken from the low 111.59.
• All of the above is positioned within the current daily demand, which, as we also mentioned above, is located around the top edge of a weekly support area.
Given the above points, a long from 112 is far more appealing to us. Seeing as how the H4 buy zone (111.75/112.11) is rather large, nevertheless, a reasonably sized H4 bullish candle is required to be seen before we pull the trigger.
Data points to consider: FOMC member Evans speaks at 5.10pm and President Trump takes the stage at 11.30pm GMT.
Levels to watch/live orders:
• Buys: 111.75/112.11 (waiting for a reasonably sized H4 bull candle to form is advised before pulling the trigger stop loss: ideally beyond the confirming candle).
• Sells: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
Weekly closing price: 112.68
A healthy bout of selling was seen in the market last week, erasing the prior week’s gains and breaking a two-week bullish phase. Providing that the bears can continue to stamp in their authority here, we see no reason why the weekly support area at 111.44-110.10 will not come into play.
Since mid-January, the daily candles have been consolidating between a daily resistance area coming in at 115.62-114.60 and a daily demand formed at 111.35-112.37 (positioned around the upper edge of the aforementioned weekly support area). A sustained move beyond the top edge of this range could lead to a rally north up to the daily resistance registered at 118.20. Conversely, a push below the lower edge of the daily consolidation may force the unit to challenge the nearby daily broken Quasimodo line at 110.58.
In the early hours of Friday’s London morning segment, the US dollar resumed its decline against the Japanese yen. After chomping through March’s opening base at 113.09, the 113.00 handle and eventually February’s opening line at 112.77, the pair concluded trade forming a H4 indecision candle at 112.68. Despite space being seen for the H4 candles to continue selling off down to around the 112.00 vicinity, we have to remain cognizant of the current daily demand pictured at 111.35-112.37.
Our suggestions: With the top edge of the daily demand coming in at 112.37, shorting from the underside of Feb’s opening line at 112.77 is not impossible, but difficult in regards to space. One has 40 pips of room to play with here. As such, we feel the better route to take today/this week is instead of looking to grab 30 or so pips from a short here, look to wait and see if the H4 candles can test 112 (green circle) for longs. There are a number of technical aspects that support a buy from this angle:
• The H4 88.6 retracement value seen at 112.11.
• The H4 Quasimodo support at 111.91.
• A H4 trendline support taken from the low 111.59.
• All of the above is positioned within the current daily demand, which, as we also mentioned above, is located around the top edge of a weekly support area.
Given the above points, a long from 112 is far more appealing to us. Seeing as how the H4 buy zone (111.75/112.11) is rather large, nevertheless, a reasonably sized H4 bullish candle is required to be seen before we pull the trigger.
Data points to consider: FOMC member Evans speaks at 5.10pm and President Trump takes the stage at 11.30pm GMT.
Levels to watch/live orders:
• Buys: 111.75/112.11 (waiting for a reasonably sized H4 bull candle to form is advised before pulling the trigger stop loss: ideally beyond the confirming candle).
• Sells: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
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